Here's Why Today's Local Elections Really Matter For Every Party Leader

Voters across England are going to the polls.Voters across England will go to the polls today to elect councillors, mayors and, in one constituency, a new MP.It is the first major test of the public mood since the general election last July, when Keir Starmer became prime minister on the back of Labour’s landslide victory.A total of 1,641 council seats are up for grabs across 23 local authorities, while four regional mayors and two local mayors will also be elected.And in Runcorn and Helsby, a new MP will be elected after the previous incumbent, Labour’s Mike Amesbury, quit after being convicted of punching a voter.It is no exaggeration to say that there is a lot on the line for the leaders of all four main parties – Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Lib Dems.Firstly, it is important to put the council elections in contest.The last time the same seats were up for grabs, back in 2021, British politics was a very different place.Then PM Boris Johnson was riding high following the successful rollout of the Covid vaccine, and was rewarded by the voters.That means the Tories won nearly 1,000 of the seats up for election today, meaning they have more to lose than any other party.Given the thrashing the Conservatives received at the general election, and the less-than-convincing start Kemi Badenoch has made to the party leadership, it is perhaps unsurprising that they are on course for a miserable night.Tory peer and polling expert Lord Hayward has predicted the party could lose around 500 council seats, as well as control of all 15 of the local authorities they currently run.The Conservatives are also not at the races in Runcorn and Helsby, and their only crumb of comfort could come in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral contest.While there is no realistic threat to Badenoch’s position yet, a truly awful night will pile even more pressure on her to start turning her party’s fortunes around very quickly.The main beneficiary of the Conservative collapse will be Nigel Farage’s Reform party, who are expected to pick up hundreds of council seats.In addition, the party hopes to seize control of Doncaster Council, as well as the town’s mayoralty, from Labour.On a good night, Reform could also win the mayoralties in Greater Lincolnshire – where their candidate is former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns – and in Hull and East Yorkshire.The key battle to keep an eye on, however, is in Runcorn and Helsby, where Reform are looking to overturn Labour’s majority of nearly 15,000. Were they to do so, expect to see Farage hot-footing it to the constituency tomorrow morning.However, were Reform to fall short in its goals, it would be a blow for Farage and suggest that the party is struggling to convert its recent surge in the opinion polls into votes at the ballot box.Nigel Farage campaigning with Reform UK mayoral candidate Andrea Jenkyns.A good night for Reform – especially in Red Wall areas like Doncaster and Durham – will mean a bad night for Labour and Keir Starmer.Although the party could actually gain a small number of council seats, this is mainly down to the fact that they only hold around 300 of those up for election, meaning it is pretty difficult for them to fall any further.If they did register losses, however, expect alarm bells to start ringing in 10 Downing Street.Those jitters will get even worse if Reform UK manage to defeat Labour in Runcorn and Helsby.Labour chair Ellie Reeves appeared to concede defeat earlier this week when she accused the Conservatives of “gifting” the seat to Reform by not campaigning.But was it actually a clever piece of expectation management, so the party can present victory in what should be a safe Labour seat as a major achievement? We should find out at around 3am on Friday.The Lib Dems, meanwhile, are bullish that the progress they made at the general election will be continued today.They hope to take seats off both the Tories and Labour, effectively presenting themselves as party of choice for centrist voters who want to register a protest against the two main parties but cannot stomach Farage.Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said: “People are deeply disappointed with Keir Starmer’s Labour government but won’t forgive the Conservative Party for all the damage they did to the country. “It’s clear Nigel Farage and his ragtag band of Putin apologists don’t offer the solutions that people are crying out for. That’s why so many people are backing the Liberal Democrats because they know we work hard for our communities, and are the only party standing up for Britain.”If you've got elections today, vote Liberal Democrat. Vote for local champions who'll listen, stand up for your community, and get things done. pic.twitter.com/ZXaIAmp7qi— Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) May 1, 2025The Lib Dems are forecast to gain around 80 seats by Lord Hayward, as have the Greens.The first results are due to start coming in in the early hours of Friday, with the rest being confirmed throughout the day.Come Saturday we will have a full picture of who is up and who is down – and who is the party leader with the most explaining to do to their supporters.Related...Reform's Richard Tice Was Asked What The Party Has Achieved In Local Government – And Couldn't Answer'He's Said The Quiet Part Out Loud': Farage Slammed Over NHS Funding CommentsTories On Course To Lose 500 Seats In Local Election Humiliation

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