Is Nigel Farage About To Give Keir Starmer Another Bloody Nose At The Ballot Box?

Nigel Farage was in Aberdeen yesterday before heading to campaign in Hamilton.It is often said that the road to a Labour majority at Westminster runs through Scotland.History would indicate that a hefty contingent of MPs from north of the border is a prerequisite for any Labour leader to have realistic ambitions of entering 10 Downing Street.You only have to go back 11 months for proof, with the party claiming 37 of the 57 Scottish seats up for grabs as Keir Starmer claimed a historic landslide victory.That is why this Thursday’s by-election for the Scottish Parliament seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is so significant.The seat is up for grabs following the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, who won it at the last Holyrood election with a majority of 4,582.A year ago, with Labour riding high in Scotland and the SNP in the doldrums, this would have been seen as a relatively comfortable gain for Starmer’s party.But a lot has changed since last July, with both Starmer and Labour seeing their poll ratings nosedive, due in no small part to unpopular policies like scrapping winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners.The bookies, who are rarely wrong in these matters, have the SNP as the heavy odds-on favourites to retain the seat.Even more worrying for Labour – and Starmer – is the fact that Reform UK are favourites to to leapfrog the party into second place.Such a seismic result in what was once a Labour stronghold would reverberate in Downing Street, where thoughts are already turning to Starmer’s chances of being returned to power at the next general election in 2028 or 2029.Throw in the fact that Imogen Walker, wife of Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, is MP for the neighbouring Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley, and it’s clear to see why Thursday’s result will be closely analysed in No.10.Labour’s campaign was dealt a further blow on Monday when one of the party’s councillors in Scotland, Jamie McGuire, defected to Reform.That was timed to coincide with Nigel Farage’s first visit to the constituency, where he was forced to cancel a meet-and-greet with voters after Reform supporters and opponents clashed.Labour have leapt on Farage’s admission that a Reform victory on Thursday is “improbable”, telling voters that shows only they can beat the SNP.Senior Labour insiders are insisting that they could still win the tight three-way contest.“I’m confident – it’s close but on the right side of close,” one told HuffPost UK.“Farage saying it’s ‘improbable’ they’ll win and there’s only a chance they’ll come second, which chimes with our data.”An open letter to voters by SNP leader John Swinney, published last week in the Daily Record newspaper, stating that only his party can beat Reform, was dismissed as “total and utter panic” by one Labour MP.He added: “Why would they do that if they were winning comfortably and we’re supposedly struggling? It’s complete desperation.“They want to turn it into a Reform v SNP fight to try to shore up the progressive vote.”Nevertheless, the most likely result remains an SNP hold, with Labour fighting it out with Reform to come second.Just a month ago, Reform routed both Labour and the Tories in the English local elections.Were Farage to defeat Starmer again on Thursday, the ramifications for UK politics as a whole could be massive.Related...'No-Show Nigel': Farage Accused Of Not Attending His Own Media EventNigel Farage Accused Of Using Trump Tactics After Attacking Journalist At Press ConferenceNigel Farage Sparks Fresh Race Row By Making Another Bizarre Claim About Labour Leader

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