Trump's 'Meaningless' Ukraine Deal Stunned The West – But He May Have Had An Ulterior Motive

US President Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Aug. 15, 2025.Donald Trump appears to have made yet another major U-turn by working with Russia to come up with a peace deal to end the Ukraine war – without involving Ukraine.The 28-point plan was leaked this week, and while it is yet to be confirmed by any of the main parties, it is being discussed by international leaders.But this draft framework is very favourable towards Moscow and meets many of Vladimir Putin’s pre-war demands from Ukraine – including significant territory concessions by Kyiv.The US reportedly wants this early draft signed as soon as next Thursday – even threatening to withdraw intelligence and weapons unless it agrees to it – although Ukraine has already pushed back.However, it was not too long ago that Trump was demanding Putin negotiate over the deal.He even tried to corner him by putting sanctions on Russian oil, which officially came into effect on Friday.So where did this deal come from – and will it even be effective?What is in Trump’s 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine?According to reports in Axios, Reuters and the Financial Times, Ukraine is expected to give up its claim to its sovereign territory, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk completely – so they become de fact Russian.Kherson and Zaporzhzhia would be frozen along the lines of contact, while Russia will “relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions”.While the leaked draft claimed Ukraine would receive security guarantees, they were not listed. The US would then receive compensation for that guarantee, according to the plan.Ukraine would also not join Nato, despite having a long-standing ambition to join the defence alliance, and no Nato troops would be stationed in Ukraine.European fighter jets would be “stationed” in Poland – although details as to which countries would provide these jets remain unclear.Ukraine’s armed forces would be limited to 600,000 and a Ukrainian election would be held within 100 days.A joint US-Russia working group would be set up to look at the ongoing security issues, while Russia would return to the global community – and sanctions would be lifted.Could Trump’s plan work?Senior consulting fellow for Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme, Keir Giles, seemed unconvinced – and pointed out a clear flaw with Trump’s plan.He told HuffPost UK the path towards peace is not as “one-sided as the US might think”, because Ukraine has to have a say for a deal to work.Giles also said the US’s influence over Ukraine weakens every time the White House withdraws more of its aid.He suggested that deal had been created so it looks like a “two-sided process” but Russia has not compromised on anything significant.Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at Leicester University, said: “As far as Ukraine is concerned, the plan is a non-starter. Ukraine will never surrender that portion of the Donbas still under its control.“The Ukrainian people would never stand for it. They have spilled too much blood and treasure to surrender their land.”Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted he will not betray Ukraine’s national interest while he considers Trump’s plan.But he acknowledged that Kyiv faced losing a major partner or losing its dignity.I held a meeting with Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha and our diplomatic team. We are working to ensure that Ukraine’s national interests are taken into account at every level of our relations with partners. Right now, there are meetings, calls, and work on… pic.twitter.com/vQl47aHVRq— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 21, 2025Why is the timing around this framework questionable?Bennett told HuffPost UK that Trump is very keen to get a deal over the line because of his own personal ambitions – and pressures.He said: “Trump is desperate to claim that he ended the war between Ukraine and Russia, first, because he covets the Nobel Peace Prize, and secondly, because he believes this sort of foreign policy initiative will distract his MAGA base from the Epstein scandal that – depending on what we find in the files when they are released - may cripple his presidency.”Giles seconded this notion. The consulting fellow also questioned whether Trump’s deal was “supposed to be released in this form” or if there had been some kind of manipulation from the Russian side to release it early, in a bid to force the US’s hand.Giles rebuffed claims that Putin’s top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, had torpedoed any negotiation with the States after a frosty exchange with his American counterpart in October, saying it was clear US’s efforts for peace in Ukraine were always going to continue.When it comes to Russia’s motives for appearing more willing to negotiate – while actually compromising on almost nothing – Bennett speculated that Putin might be more interested in a peace plan now because of an ongoing resource issue.“Russia’s progress is painfully slow. Despite its vast resources, the Russian army is failing in the field. Which is why Putin is looking for an off-ramp. He knows his campaign is failing,” Bennett said.Interestingly, Ukraine also marks the Day of Dignity and Freedom on November 21, the day Trump gave Kyiv a deadline to agree to peace.Ukraine’s two most recent anti-Russia revolts, the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity of 2013, began on this date.What happens next?While Ukraine weighs up how to respond, Giles predicted negotiations will go “round and round” because Trump’s deal is “meaningless and unenforceable”.Zelenskyy will certainly have to be careful not to outright reject the plan, having been on the receiving end of Trump’s wrath multiple times already this year.He will want to be seen as co-operative, while still pushing back on the strategy.Giles also predicted that the “war might not be decided on the frontline,” if the trend of Ukraine being able to better defend itself continues.”He added that “we should expect surprises from Ukraine” as the war continues and Kyiv is forced to become more self-reliant.He pointed to the recent attacks on Russian oil refineries and said “the means by which Ukraine can deliver an effect might change the risk-benefit of war for people in the Kremlin.”Verified images show one of Russia’s largest oil refineries was set on fire twice this week by Ukrainian attacks.Similarly, Bennett said: “This is Kyiv’s war, not Washington’s war. Trump surrendered his leadership and moral authority when he courted Putin in Alaska.“This is now Europe’s war. It is nothing to do with a perfidious United States. As I have said before, this is 1939. Europe has again been abandoned by the US. We have to fight and win this on our own.”Related...BBC Expert Warns Trump's New Peace Plan With Russia Would Allow Putin To Declare 'Victory'No.10 Rebuffs Trump And Russia's Alleged Peace Plan For Ukraine With Key Reminder'We Are Ready': Defence Secretary Delivers Warning To Putin Over Russian Spy Ship Off UK Coast

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