What Is Expected To Be In Starmer And Macron's 'One-In, One-Out' Migrant Deal?

French President Emmanuel Macron meets Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 10 Downing Street in London, Thursday, July 10, 2025 for a UK-France summit.Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have put on an exceptionally chummy display during the French president’s state visit this week.As the first such trip from the leader of an EU member state since the 2016Brexit referendum, Downing Street was determined to make it clear its relationship with France is stronger than ever.But, cosy photoshoots and elaborate royal banquets aside, will the visit culminate in the outcome No.10 is desperately hoping for – a new deal to reduce the number of illegal migrants travelling across the English Channel?The details of a new “one-in, one-out” scheme have reportedly been thrashed out behind closed doors ahead of Starmer and Macron’s joint press conference this afternoon.Here’s a look at what they are expected to announce.What is in the deal?Starmer and Macron intend to unveil a one-in, one-out returns policy on Thursday.Initially, it would allow up to 50 small boat migrants – arriving in the UK via the English Channel – to be sent back to France every week.These migrants would be returned to locations across France, away from its northern coast.If they tried to return to the UK again, they would be identified through biometric details and sent back.According to The Times, a limited trial scheme is meant to return about 800 migrants to France by the end of 2025.It would then be scaled up once the scheme is proven to work.Naturally, France wants something in return for taking on more migrants – and money alone is not enough.So the UK has agreed to allow the same number of asylum seekers to travel to the UK from France, as long as they have a family connection in the UK.Starmer is also expected to announce a further crackdown on illegal working by migrants in the UK which is often perceived in France as a “pull factor” for those wanting to make the dangerous journey across the Channel.All foreigners in the UK will also need a digital ID through the government’s e-visa system too, to prove that they have the right to live and work here.This will be checked by immigration enforcement officers carrying mobile biometric kits.France may also agree to intercept migrant boats in the sea in exchange for more money from Britain to fund further police patrols on the beaches.This photo provided by the Prefecture Maritime du Nord et de la Manche shows migrants continuing their journey to Britain off northern France coast, Tuesday, April 23, 2024. Is this a good deal?The prime minister is expected to claim the scheme will act as a deterrent to those trying to cross the Channel, and will help his previous goal of “smashing the people-smuggling gangs”.But, if crossings continue at the same rate, it means just one in 17 migrants would be returned during the limited trial scheme. An average of 843 migrants have arrived in the UK per week since Labour were elected. That works out to a staggering 43,842 in total.As Labour look to win back voters after a pretty disastrous first year in office, they are hoping to take the wind out of Reform UK’s sails by stopping the boats.If it proves effective, this deal could be the ideal way to show up Reform leader Nigel Farage, considering his right-wing party is so focused on reducing migration.A typical morning in the English Channel. pic.twitter.com/A5LJLVNaJM— Reform UK (@reformparty_uk) July 10, 2025If the deal goes through, it would also be the first time France has actually agreed to take back migrants since the crisis began in 2018.What’s the downside?It’s set to cost the British public purse millions of pounds.The taxpayer will have to fund processing hubs in France as well as legal fees and the transportation and security costs.And that’s on top of the £770 million the UK has sent to France over the last 12 years to stem the steady flow of illegal migration the UK.There are also concerns in France that the country could become a “return hub” for migrants.EU asylum rules say member states should return illegal migrants back to the first EU country they entered, but there’s already been pushback from other member countries who do not want to take those rejected by the UK.And that’s before even looking at the operational problems that could arise, and any potential legal challenges from migrants.The Tories’ Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “This deal will mean that 94% of illegal migrants crossing the Channel will get to stay.“That is pathetic and will not deter anyone.“By contrast, the Rwanda deterrent would have seen 100% of illegal migrants removed and that would have worked to deter people crossing the Channel. Keir Starmer’s failure continues.”Related...Darren Jones Admits He Was Wrong To Say Most Migrants On Small Boats Are 'Children, Babies And Women'Starmer Says Illegal Migration 'Unfair' On Working People And Migrants'Deeply Troubled': Britain's Most Senior Judge Slams Starmer And Badenoch Over Migrant Comments

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