Why Local Election Night Is Shaping Up To Be Even Worse For Labour Than The Tories

Keir Starmer is set to face difficult questions after the local elections.On the face of it, the forecast did not appear to be too bad for Labour.Lord Hayward, the Tory peer and polling expert, said his party are on course to lose 500 seats in next Thursday’s local elections.Labour, meanwhile, could end up with roughly the same number of councillors they have now, and could even pick up a few extra.But the headline figures do not even come close to telling the full story, and hide a worrying trend that is causing headaches in 10 Downing Street.In the normal run of things, a bad night for the Conservatives – which May 1 will undoubtedly be – should mean a good one for Labour, with the party picking up a hefty chunk of Tory seats.The main beneficiaries of the Tory collapse this time, however, are set to be Reform UK, who could see their number of councillors soar by around 450.Ominously for the prime minister, many of those will be in the Midlands and the North, part of the fabled “Red Wall” of seats which were Labour for decades before switching to Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019.Although they reverted to Labour last July, party strategists know they are vulnerable to Reform next time around – and the local elections look set to confirm that.What’s more, Labour could also see their 15,000 majority evaporate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election taking place on the same day, with Reform poised to claim the seat.But it is not just Reform who are taking support from Labour.Polling shows that a significant chunk of those who voted for Starmer last July, and are unhappy with the government, are looking to the Lib Dems and Greens rather than throw their lot in with Nigel Farage’s right-wing party.Lord Hayward told HuffPost UK: “Labour initially thought that their biggest threat came from Reform, and so took their eye off the ball when it comes to the Lib Dems and the Greens. They’ve finally woken up to it and are seriously concerned.“Next Thursday could be a terrible night for Labour. They are going to get hit very hard by Reform, and are also going to do badly against the Lib Dems and Greens in Oxford and Cambridge, and possibly in the West of England mayoralty as well.”Labour insiders describe the mayoral election for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority as “on a knife-edge” and are hoping it will provide a shaft of light on an otherwise gloomy night.However, No.10 sources say former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns, now in Reform, will “win easily” to become the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.Polling by YouGov suggests Reform are the favourites to win the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire, and also confirmed Hayward’s belief that the Greens will prevail in the West of England.One Labour source said: “Next Thursday’s going to be tough. We’ve done a lot of difficult things since last July, and it’s not unusual for a new government to get hammered in their first council elections. “We’ll take a battering but so will the Tories.”Policies like slashing aid spending and scrapping winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners are the main reason why many left-of-centre voters will switch to the Lib Dems and Greens.But the Labour source said: “We don’t take our voters for granted, but we have also introduced a radical workers’ rights package and increased the minimum wage. Those are serious progressive policies which are moving the country forward.”Keiran Pedley, director of UK politics at Ipsos, said it was not unusual for governing parties to be “attacked from left and right”.“At last year’s general election, the Conservatives lost support to Reform UK over immigration and to Labour and Liberal Democrats over the cost of living, public services and other issues,” he pointed out. “Now in government themselves, Labour face a similar challenge.”He said Ipsos’ data shows that around one-fifth of those who voted Labour last year now have an unfavourable view towards the party – meaning their support is now up for grabs.“This group places immigration as the third most important issue, behind health and the cost of living, with at least some of them likely vulnerable to Reform UK,” he said.However, Pedley also revealed that around one-third of 2024 Labour voters are now favourable towards the Lib Dems and Greens.He said: “This suggests that if Labour do not deliver on core issues that matter to their voting coalition - as well as addressing public concern over immigration - they could be vulnerable on both their left flank and the right come the next general election, and the elections on May 1 will be a signpost to this.”Green co-leader Carla Denyer said the government’s apparent desire to win back voters from Reform UK has presented a massive opportunity for her party.″It’s really clear that voters want to see positive change in this country – and they’re not getting it from Labour,” she told HuffPost UK.“On the contrary, we’ve seen a litany of failures and bad choices, whether it’s cutting benefits for disabled people or giving the go-ahead to climate-wrecking airport expansion. “There are plenty of voters out there who feel that Labour has abandoned them in their attempts to chase Reform voters – and who can see that unlike the Labour party, the Greens are actually offering a genuine alternative to the last decade and a half of austerity and decline.”The Lib Dem are also licking their lips at the prospect of taking votes off both the Tories and Labour next Thursday.Party insiders agree with Lord Hayward’s analysis that the Tories could lose control of all 15 councils they currently run and which are up for election.Lib Dem leader Ed Davey’s vocal criticism of Donald Trump, as well as his campaign for people to buy British produce to counteract US tariffs, appears to be going down well with those unhappy with Starmer’s more cautious approach.“Disappointment with Labour is growing on the doorsteps,” said one senior party source.Downing Street’s response to next Thursday’s results will be to keep calm and carry on, with preparations already well underway for what will be announced at Labour’s annual conference in the autumn.However, experienced party insiders can see more storm clouds gathering on the horizon.“This time next year it will be very difficult indeed for Labour in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections,” said one. “That is when we could see people lose their minds.”Another source said the PM had no option but to focus on keeping the promises he made to the country before the election.“The government has just got to get on and deliver – the stakes are really that high.”Related...'He Doesn't Have The Balls': Kemi Badenoch Hits Starmer With Low Blow Over Trans U-TurnAnalysis: Why Those Who Want Starmer To Read Trump The Riot Act Will Be Disappointed'Timid!' 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