Would It Make Any Difference If Europe – But Not The US – Stopped Sending Weapons To Israel?

President Donald Trump smiles at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right back in 2019.Israel has just declared its intentions to expand its military offensive in Gaza, despite the deepening humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territory.Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists this is the only way to eradicate Hamas – but his words have sparked terror among European allies.Germany stopped all of its weapon exports to Israel as a result of the announcement.The UK’s prime minister Keir Starmer immediately condemned Israel’s plan, predicting it would just trigger more “bloodshed,” but is yet to halt the few military exports Britain still sends to Israel. Labour did impose a partial ban on arms being sent to Israel last year, but critics have often claimed loopholes mean the remaining exports are still being used in the offensive against Gaza.So Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said the UK “needs to take decisive action”, adding: “Keir Starmer needs to stop the export of all UK arms to Israel – today – and sanction Netanyahu and his cabinet.”But would this even make a difference?The US is by far Israel’s most powerful ally and, as vice-president JD Vance made plain at a bilateral meeting with David Lammy today, it seems unlikely the States will halt weapon shipments to Israel.After all, the White House has no plans to recognise a Palestinian state right now, unlike the UK and France.Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the think tank, RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) told HuffPost UK that even if all of Europe stopped sending exports which could be used for arms, that alone would not be enough to halt the war.She said: “US bilateral military assistance to Israel is significant and congressionally mandated, amounting to a lifeline for Israel’s defensive capabilities, particularly in missile defence funding.“Israel also has a substantial indigenous defence industry as it has tried to become more self-reliant in recent years.”But, the specialist noted the “US assistance dwarfs Europe’s”.“If other European countries follow Germany’s decision to halt military supplies, this will send a strong message but will likely still fall short of stopping the war in Gaza as long as US funding continues unhindered. European leverage is limited,” Dr Ozcelik explained.However, the specialist did not suggest this would be at all a wasted effort.She told HuffPost UK: “At the same time, a cut in military support could render Israel more vulnerable to other future threats, including from Iran.“This would raise a profound challenge, especially as countering Iranian state and non-state attacks against Israel remains a pillar of UK’s policy in the Middle East.“In parallel to considerations of how to assert pressure on Israel, increased pressure by the UK and EU on Hamas beyond rhetoric to more direct actions that may constrain Hamas political officials and its financing networks in the region may offer a pathway toward the release of Israeli hostages and a ceasefire.”Either way, Vance made it quite clear today that the US is not completely aligned with Europe’s horror at Israel’s expansion plan – but that they were willing to work together.He said: “I think all of us can work on how to solve that problem [in Gaza]. Obviously, it’s not an easy problem to solve, or it would have already been dealt with, but we share, I think, that focus and that goal.“We may have some disagreements about how exactly to accomplish that goal, and we’ll talk about that today.”Related...Keir Starmer Condemns Israel's Escalation Of Gaza Offensive With Bleak 'Bloodshed' WarningNetanyahu Says Israel Plans To Take Control Of Entire Gaza Strip'Pick Up The Phone!' Starmer Urged To Speak To Trump Amid Fears Israel May Reoccupy Gaza

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