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UK government borrowing falls to £1.1bn in July, despite third-highest year-to-date deficit on record – business live

Tax receipts rise in July but chancellor remains under pressure; US Federal Reserve minutes dampen investor moodThe chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts, summed up Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He is predicting “sin” and “stealth” tax hikes, duty increases and a pensions tax raid.The big picture remains that the public finances are in chronically weak condition. The chancellor faces surging gilt yields and a likely productivity downgrade from the OBR in the October forecast round.The litany of policy uturns has only compounded the government’s fiscal woes. We think the chancellor will need to resort to ’sin’ and ’stealth’ tax hikes, duty increases, and a pensions tax raid in order to meet her fiscal rules if she wants to meet her pledge of keeping headline tax rates unchanged.Although tax receipts rose in July, the chancellor remains under pressure as she tries to balance weak growth with the fiscal rules she has committed to. While the government’s manifesto promises to maintain investment and shield working people from tax hikes, analysis from NIESR suggests up to £40bn in additional revenue may be needed to restore headroom and maintain investor confidence in the UK’s public finances.As the chancellor prepares for the autumn budget, the challenge will be finding creative sources of revenue while treading carefully around the impact on living standards. Continue reading...

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