The Breakdown | Five areas where the Australia v Lions Test series will be won and lost

Selection, discipline, kicking, aerial dominance and individual brilliance will all be key in the next few weeksSelection It may sound obvious but both sides need their key chess pieces to be in the correct places. Neither team are due to declare their hands officially until Thursday but the Lions will be well aware of Joe Schmidt’s ability to produce a tactical surprise or two. The big name to look out from an Australian perspective will be Rob Valetini, such an important cog in the Wallaby pack but injured for the recent Fiji game. If Valetini is ruled out it will be a blow to home morale; the Wallabies are going to need their main men on the field. The Lions have had their own injury problems but their back-row and centre selections will be instructive. They will be tempted to start with their most physical flanker, Tom Curry, and send out Ben Earl and/or Henry Pollock to up the tempo later. But Jac Morgan, the only Welshman left in the squad and a specialist jackler, would offer the Lions balance in more ways than one. And while it seems almost too obvious to start with Sione Tuipulotu at 12 inside Huw Jones, the case for Bundee Aki remains strong. Among other things it would enable Andy Farrell to go direct initially and then change things up for the second Test in Melbourne. Owen Farrell on the bench? The ex-England captain seems destined to have an impact on this series at some point.Tackle area discipline If the Lions have learned one lesson on this tour it is the vital importance of the breakdown. The Wallabies have a quality ball-sniffing openside in Fraser McReight and will be keen to go hard at the rucks to disrupt the Lions’ momentum and ensure precious quick ball for their own backs. Furthermore, the referees named for this series, New Zealand’s Ben O’Keeffe, Italy’s Andrea Piardi and Georgia’s Nika Amashukeli might not necessarily have been the Lions’ first-choice triumvirate. O’Keeffe refereed the second Test against South Africa four years ago when the Lions were well beaten 27-9 while the other two are new to the unique intensity of a Lions Test series. Andy Farrell’s team have been already been working hard on reducing their penalty counts but, as the former All Black coach Ian Foster observed at the weekend, not giving the opposition an “easy out” will be crucial for both teams. “In a Lions series there’s lots of pressure and it comes down to your discipline,” warned Foster, involved with the Australia & New Zealand Invitational XV beaten 48-0 in Adelaide. “We were combative but when we got squeezed we lost our discipline. The Lions will hurt you if that happens.”This is an extract taken from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown. To sign up, just visit this page and follow the instructions. Continue reading...

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