750K federal workers risk furloughs in government shutdown, CBO estimates

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed each day of a government shutdown.Why it matters: Those furloughed employees, as well as congressional staffers, will not receive paychecks, putting pressure on lawmakers and White House to find an agreement to reopen the government.The daily cost of those employees' compensation will be "roughly 400 million," CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote to lawmakers on Tuesday.Driving the news: The government will shut down at midnight if Congress doesn't authorize a short-term spending stopgap.The White House has warned that temporary furloughs could turn into permanent firings.Zoom in: CBO is basing its estimates on the agencies' contingency plans and departments and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM)."The number of furloughed employees could vary by the day because some agencies might furlough more employees the longer a shutdown persists and others might recall some initially furloughed employees," Swagel writes.Every agency and department must decide which employees are "excepted" and which ones to furlough. None of them will receive pay during a shutdown. "Active-duty military personnel generally are considered excepted employees and thus are required to work during a government shutdown. Like other federal employees, they are paid once appropriations are enacted" Swagel writes.Between the lines: Members of Congress do receive pay during a shutdown.The intrigue: The Trump administration can keep certain federal parks and monuments open if it wants to but they are likely to be unstaffed.Departments and agencies can also choose to pay some federal employees out of either mandatory spending accounts or from funds appropriated by Congress in the "one big beautiful bill."That gives the Trump administration the ability to pay employees it thinks are critical.Zoom out: If and when a shutdown ends, federal employees and congressional staffers will receive paychecks.In the meantime, it's difficult to calculate the effect of their delayed paychecks on economic growth."The effects of a government shutdown on business activity are uncertain, and their magnitude would depend on the duration of a shutdown and on decisions made by the Administration," Swagel writes.