"A bad time to be Latino": Pessimism surges in new Axios-Ipsos poll

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios VisualsNearly two in three Latinos say it's a bad time to be Latino or Hispanic in the U.S. — a spike in pessimism since just last year and a total reversal from three years ago — according to a new Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.The big picture: The survey shows that Latinos' overall sense of optimism, safety and belonging has plunged across several measures since President Trump took office.Majorities say they want Trump's administration to stop ICE raids and deportations, and worry that they or loved ones are vulnerable to attack simply because they're Latino.Respondents also were twice as likely to blame Republicans than Democrats for the federal government shutdown.State of play: The surge in Latino pessimism signals warning lights for both parties heading into 2026 and suggests many Latinos now feel politically homeless — frustrated by rising costs and unseen by either side.Trump's rhetoric and immigration crackdowns are fueling fear and alienation, while Democrats have lost trust among a group that had long been a key part of their base. By the numbers: Just 31% of all Latino respondents say it's a good time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in the U.S., while 65% say it's a bad time. That's a big slide from March 2024 (55% good, 40% bad) and a complete flip from October 2022 (65% good, 31% bad).Today, sentiment on this question is deeply politicized: 64% of Republican respondents say it's a good time to be Latino, compared with 30% of independents and just 16% of Democrats. The March 2024 poll found virtually no difference between Republican and Democratic responses to the question.Zoom in: Only 40% say the U.S. makes them feel they belong here, down from 51% in March 2024.44% of respondents in the latest survey say they believe they can live the American Dream, down from 53% in March 2024. In addition, just 36% say they're optimistic about the future of the U.S., down from 41% in March 2024.Yes, but: These trends, driven heavily by partisan identification, don't appear to have significantly eroded Trump's overall favorability among Latinos. It's 30% in this survey, compared with 32% in March 2024.The Republican Party continues to narrow Democrats' advantage as the party Latinos say better "represents people like you," to a 12-point deficit (32% to 20%), compared with a 20-point gap in March 2024.Immigration and border concerns take a backseat to getting inflation and prices under control, lowering health care costs, creating jobs, dealing with crime and improving public schools.What they're saying: "There's not one party that is .... making them feel like they belong in the fabric of American society," said Mallory Newall, Ipsos vice president for U.S. public affairs."There are some really clear signs that the issues that matter most to this group are not being addressed," Newall said. "It's making people's lived experience and outcome on their finances feel increasingly pessimistic."Zoom out: On immigration, support has plummeted for letting the president shut U.S. borders if too many migrants are entering the country, from 64% in March 2024 to 44% today. Over the same time period, support also dropped for the idea of sending all undocumented immigrants back to their country of origin, from 38% to 31%.31% of respondents say Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions have changed how they go about their lives; 53% worry they or a loved one will be attacked because of their ethnic heritage, up from 39% before Trump was president.54% say it's of top or very high importance that the government stops ICE raids and deportations. 27% said they support reducing restrictions on federal officers making immigration-related stopsRespondents also oppose the idea of National Guard deployments to major cities in their home state, by a 2-to-1 ratio. Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, was conducted Oct. 21-27, 2025, by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,123 Hispanic/Latino adults age 18 or older, of whom 699 are registered voters. The margin of sampling error is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample, or ±4.0 percentage points for the subsample of registered voters.

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