CBO slashes tariff deficit forecast, complicating Trump's $2,000 checks

President Trump's tariffs will cut deficits by $3 trillion over the next decade, $1 trillion less than previously forecast, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday.Why it matters: Taking a trillion dollars in deficit reduction off the table may complicate the math around Trump's $2,000 tariff dividend checks — already unpopular with Senate Republicans who want to prioritize the deficit.Follow the money: CBO said all of the tariffs put in place between January 6 and November 15 would cut primary deficits by $2.5 trillion, if left in place through 2035.Lower deficits mean less borrowing, saving an estimated $500 billion in interest, bringing the total deficit reduction to $3 trillion. Between the lines: The revision restores the projection the office made in June, which it later raised in August.The reduction is driven by new data on what's actually coming in from tariff collections, as well as a series of rate reductions, including for China and on some food products. Stunning stat: The CBO now estimates that more than a third of all U.S. imports are unaffected by tariff changes implemented this year. For the record: "The fact of the matter is that President Trump is set to raise trillions in revenue for the federal government with tariffs – whose costs will ultimately be paid by the foreign exporters who are reliant on access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market," White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.Desai said that would combine with spending cuts and faster growth to support the economy. What to watch: Trump has repeatedly promised the $2,000 tariff checks as soon as mid-2026.Given that many in Congress would rather the money go toward deficits, this new projection may make the argument more difficult. Editor's note: This story has been updated with a White House statement. Go deeper: Trump promises $2,000 tariff checks by mid-2026

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