Exclusive: Newsom pollster sees big support for California redistricting

Gov. Gavin Newsom's bid to redraw California's congressional seats to create more Democrat-friendly districts has a 22-point advantage in support among the state's voters, Newsom's longtime pollster writes in an internal memo obtained by Axios.Why it matters: California's vote this November on what's known as Proposition 50 will have tremendous consequences for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.Democrats likely would gain several California seats in the 2026 midterms — and boost their odds of winning back control of the House of Representatives — if voters in the liberal state pass the measure, which is a response to Republican efforts to gain seats by redistricting in Texas.If the proposition fails, it could weaken Newsom ahead of a potential 2028 presidential bid.By the numbers: David Binder, a prominent Democratic pollster who has long worked for Newsom, found that 57% of California voters backed the redistricting measure, while 35% opposed and 8% were undecided.Voters' support appears to have increased as they've learned more about the measure, Binder said: A July survey had found that 51% favored Newsom's redistricting push.Binder also wrote that "Democrats are almost fully united in their support, with 84% in support and 13% opposed."Republicans are similarly united against the measure with 79% opposed, Binder added."Voter trends on this measure closely mirror the presidential election results of November 2024, in which Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in California by 58% to 38%. Poll results indicate that Proposition 50 will fall along similar partisan lines," Binder concluded.Between the lines: Binder wrote that support for the redistricting measure changes based on how it's pitched to voters.If Proposition 50 is framed as doing away with the state's independent redistricting commission that is meant to avoid partisan gerrymandering, the measure appears to have less support, Binder concluded, citing other surveys."When voters hear that Proposition 50 allows new maps to be designed on a temporary basis, triggered by partisan action in other state such as Texas, and retains the independent redistricting commission, they support the measure by a double-digit margin," Binder wrote.Zoom out: Congressional redistricting historically has been done once a decade after each census, but President Trump's push for Republicans in Texas to redraw that state's district's early to favor the GOP has led Newsom and other prominent Democratic governors to look into redrawing their maps early. Republicans currently have a slim seven-seat majority in the U.S. House, with four seats vacant. Just a few seats changing hands in next year's elections could hand mean the difference between being in the majority or the minority. Some other GOP-led states besides Texas also are reviewing their redistricting options in response to Newsom's move in California. Newsom's aggressive response — along with his frequent media appearances and his feisty social media operation — have earned him plaudits among some prominent Democrats, who are looking for a fighter in response to Trump.Poll methodology: The survey was conducted from Aug. 10–Aug. 14th of 1,000 likely special election voters and is subject to a margin of error of +/-3%. Interviews were conducted by phone, including live interviews on cell phones and landlines, and online. Respondents were recruited by phone, text message, or email using voter file information, and the survey was offered in English and in Spanish.

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