Iran faces stiff sanctions if no deal by end of August, U.S. and allies agree

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the U.K. agreed in a phone call on Monday to set the end of August as the de facto deadline for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, according to three sources with knowledge of the call. Why it matters: If no deal is reached by that deadline, the three European powers plan to trigger the "snapback" mechanism that automatically reimposes all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 Iran deal. Zoom in: The snapback provision — included in the deal to allow the signatories to respond to Iranian violations — will expire in October.The process of activating "snapback" takes 30 days, and the Europeans want to conclude the process before Russia assumes the UN Security Council presidency in October. U.S. and European officials view snapback as both a negotiating tool to pressure Tehran and a fallback if diplomacy fails.But the Iranians argue there is no legal basis to reimpose the sanctions, and have threatened to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response.Driving the news: The call between Rubio and his European counterparts was aimed at coordinating positions on "snapback" and the path forward on nuclear diplomacy with Iran, the sources said.The intrigue: According to two of the sources, the Europeans now plan to engage with Iran in the coming days and weeks with the message that Iran can avoid the snapback sanctions if it takes steps to reassure the world about its nuclear program.Such steps could include resuming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, which Iran suspended after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities.One source said another such step could be the removal from Iran of the roughly 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity that's contained in those sites.Behind the scenes: Since the end of the war between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration has been trying to resume negotiations on a new nuclear deal. Some officials in France, Germany, the U.K. and Israel were concerned the Trump administration would press the European powers not to trigger the snapback sanctions so as not to harm potential negotiations. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House last week he raised the issue with President Trump, Rubio and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, two Israeli officials said. Netanyahu asked Trump not to block snapback and told Witkoff that the U.S. should make it clear to the Iranians that they don't have much time if they want to get a deal and avoid the reimposing of UN sanctions. "We felt that Trump and his team agreed with us," an Israeli official said. What they are saying: A senior U.S. official said the Trump administration supports activating snapback and sees it as leverage in the talks with Iran. The U.S. official said Trump is highly frustrated that the Iranians haven't come back to the table yet. Witkoff has made it clear to the Iranians that any future talks must be direct, rather than mediated by a third party, to avoid misunderstandings and expedite the process, the U.S. official said.

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