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Reeves accused of ‘rattling the markets’ after income tax U-turn pushes up borrowing costs – UK politics live

A source told the Guardian that plans to break the manifesto pledge on income tax had been ditched by the chancellorThese are from Ben Zaranko, an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, on the chancellor’s U-turn, and in particular on the FT’s claim that, instead of putting up income tax, she will “rely heavily on what has been dubbed the ‘smorgasbord’ approach of increasing a range of narrowly-drawn taxes”.Considerable risks with this approach: 1) revenues more uncertain; 2) greater risk of damaging economic impacts; 3) lots of angry interest groups, makes U-turns more likely; 4) viewed less favourably by bond market investors, many of whom were expecting an income tax rise.But on the flip side, it could allow a Budget that doesn’t strictly break manifesto promises (which isn’t a trivial concern given low trust in politicians). It is possible to raise tens of billions without raising rates of the big 3 taxes. It’s just really, really difficult.Here’s an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts?Senior Labour source: “Keir and Rachel - in office, but not power.” Continue reading...

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