Scoop: How an Israeli attack inadvertently launched Trump's Gaza peace plan

The seeds of the plan President Trump presented on Monday to end the war in Gaza were planted three weeks earlier, when Israel bombed Qatar in a failed attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders.The big picture: The Israeli strike united Arab leaders in outrage at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and intensified calls within Israeli society for a deal to free the remaining hostages and end the war.At first outraged by the strike and the destabilization it could cause, Trump's advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner soon saw the crisis as an opportunity to end the war, four sources with direct knowledge tell Axios.They noticed that "the Arabs were speaking with one voice," even if it was to shout at Israel, a Trump adviser familiar with the discussions told Axios. "It became clear, particularly to Steve, that this rallying cry that seemed negative at first could be turned into something positive."Flashback: A day before the September 9 strike in Doha, Witkoff and Kushner met Netanyahu's confidant Ron Dermer in Miami to discuss the Gaza peace process and a "day after" plan.When they heard about the Israeli strike in Doha they were furious, feeling Dermer deceived them, the sources say. Dermer later claimed he didn't learn about the planned strike until later.The Qataris were angrier still. They immediately suspended their mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas and started lobbying the region and the world against Israel.Several days later, Witkoff told Dermer the best way to prevent the situation from boiling over would be to apologize to Qatar and show a willingness to move toward peace in Gaza, the sources say. Dermer was not supportive.Behind the scenes: After getting a green light from Trump, Witkoff and Kushner started working on a plan to end the crisis over Qatar and parlay that into a bigger deal to end the war in Gaza.They took the existing U.S. proposal for ceasefire and hostage deal and combined it with a post-war plan Kushner had worked on with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The result was a 21-point document. "The failed Doha attack changed the regional dynamics and opened the door for a real discussion about how to end the war in Gaza," a U.S. official said. Several days before the UN General Assembly, the Qataris proposed a summit in New York between Trump and the leaders of eight Arab and Muslim countries to discuss the Israeli strike on Qatar and the war in Gaza. During that meeting last Tuesday, the Arab and Muslim leaders took turns slamming Israel. After stressing his desire to end the war in Gaza, Trump turned to Witkoff: "Steve, tell them what you have been working on."Witkoff briefed the group on the 21-point plan, to positive reactions in the room. Trump then asked the group to meet Witkoff the next day and give their input. By Wednesday night, the U.S. and the eight countries had reached a preliminary agreement on the text. Witkoff and Kushner sent it on to the Israelis.The other side: Netanyahu met with Witkoff and Kushner at his hotel in New York for two hours on Thursday afternoon and then again later that evening. At that point, there were wide gaps between the U.S. and Israel, an Israeli official said.On Friday morning, Netanyahu gave a defiant speech at the UN. He didn't mention the Trump plan at all.But the meetings between Trump's team and the Israelis continued all weekend, with the goal of reaching an agreed upon text before Netanyahu arrived at the White House on Monday morning to meet Trump.Inflection point: On Saturday, a rumor spread among Trump's team that Netanyahu was planning to reject the plan, or at least demand sweeping changes.That led Trump to place a "stern and clear" call to Netanyahu, according to a source briefed on the conversation."Trump told Bibi in no uncertain terms: 'Take it or leave it. And leave it means we walk away from you,'" the source said, adding that when it comes to Netanyahu, "Donald Trump has had enough, for many reasons."In all, Trump spoke five time on the phone with Netanyahu over the weekend, the sources said. Trump told Netanyahu he wanted a "clear yes" to the plan, not a "yes, but."Zoom in: Trump accepted some of Netanyahu's edits but rejected several others on issues that are politically sensitive within his hard-right coalition, one source said.Trump said he wouldn't ask Netanyahu to compromise on matters of security, but that didn't apply when the concern was domestic politics."If you accept this plan and Hamas rejects it, I will give you full backing to continue fighting them," Trump assured Netanyahu. On Sunday, Witkoff and Kushner held negotiations for hours with Netanyahu and Dermer in New York. The talks concluded at 11pm with both sides significantly narrowing the gaps — including over the language of the apology Netanyahu would have to make to Qatar."Netanyahu knew what he had to do. He didn't object. Give him credit: when he realized he had to do it, he did it," one of the sources recalled. "Now he wasn't raising his hands saying, 'Choose me, choose me!' But he got it done."Friction point: When the latest text was sent to the Arab and Muslim officials, they were furious at how many changes Netanyahu had managed to insert, particularly on the terms of Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, sources familiar with the talks say."Bibi told Trump in their calls over the weekend that he won't just withdraw and let Hamas reconstitute," an Israeli official said. Trump concurred.Arab countries had also pushed for changes to the text but many were left out. The objections were strong enough that the Qataris advised Trump's team not to release the detailed plan on Monday.State of play: Trump published the plan anyways. He said Tuesday that he expects an answer from Hamas in the next "three of four days." U.S. and Israeli officials expect a positive response, with some reservations.Throughout Tuesday, Arab officials gave Trump's team status reports and indicated positive movement from Hamas, one source said.Despite issuing a joint statement welcoming Trump's announcement, Arab officials have made clear they believe the deal is still being negotiated and the details aren't settled.A U.S. official said further specific "tweaks" are possible, but Trump doesn't intend to renegotiate the entire plan.What to watch: Trump is counting on officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey in particular to get Hamas to "yes." The proposition is that if Hamas walks away they "will be unfunded and on an island," a U.S. official said. But "you never know with these guys." "So fingers crossed for Hamas."

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