Thune's troublesome senators to watch

Majority Leader John Thune wants to force an initial vote on the "big, beautiful bill" around 4pm ET — here is an update on the senators most likely to cause headaches.Why it matters: Thune can only afford to lose three GOP senators and still manage to move forward with — and eventually pass — the bill, with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. It could be close.The nos:Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has long been clear that he would vote against the package because it raises the debt ceiling. He is not one to fold — like, ever.Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters after a GOP lunch Saturday that he would vote "no" both on Saturday afternoon's initial procedural vote and on the final bill. He has concerns about how the Medicaid changes would impact his state, and he's up for re-election next year.The question marks:Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are coordinating and planning to vote as a conservative bloc."We are waiting, among other things, to see how this scores," Lee told reporters on Saturday.Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is no stranger to being a swing vote. She has raised concerns about the Medicaid measures in the bill, but has also managed to win Alaska-specific caveats and tax breaks, which could be enough to win her over.Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) is threatening to vote no to move forward if a public lands sale measure makes it into the bill. A tweaked version of that language is awaiting a decision from the parliamentarian. Several GOP senators are adamantly opposed to the provision.The reluctant yeses: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is another frequent swing vote and is running for re-election next year in a blue state. She said she will vote yes to move forward, but is leaning toward "no" on final passage.Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is also running for re-election next year and had been raising some concerns about the provider tax provision, but told reporters he was a "yes" on the motion to proceed and was "still reviewing" the overall bill.Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters Saturday that he plans to vote yes on both the procedural vote and bill passage, due to the newest text delaying the implementation of reduced Medicaid provider taxes."I'm going to spend the next however long trying to make sure that the [Medicaid] cuts that we have successfully delayed never take place," he said.

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