Trump claims tariff loss would force $3 trillion "unwind"

President Trump on Tuesday claimed the U.S. would be on the hook for $3 trillion in refunds and lost investments if the administration loses the pending tariffs case at the Supreme Court.Why it matters: Trump is trying to ramp up the pressure on the court to preserve the centerpiece of his economic policy.In addition to the refund warning, in recent days he doubled down on promising a $2,000 dividend to most Americans from the tariff revenue collected so far. He's repeatedly said losing the case could "literally destroy" the country.What they're saying: "The U.S. Supreme Court was given the wrong numbers. The 'unwind' in the event of a negative decision on Tariffs, would be, including investments made, to be made, and return of funds, in excess of 3 Trillion Dollars," Trump posted on Truth Social early Tuesday. "That would truly become an insurmountable National Security Event, and devastating to the future of our Country - Possibly non-sustainable!"The intrigue: Trump posted the $3 trillion figure on Truth Social just hours after posting that a loss would cost $2 trillion in refunds on tariff revenue and lost investments. By the numbers: Tariff collections in fiscal 2025 were about $195 billion.Recent collections were about $35 billion a month, or about $420 billion a year if that pace continues. Trade agreements with Japan, South Korea and the European Union call for investments of more than $1.5 trillion into the U.S. economy in coming years. Those pacts were not upfront payments, though, but future pledges over multiple years. What to watch: While the Supreme Court raised the question of possible refunds during their Nov. 5 hearing, it's not clear if they will actually touch the subject in any ruling.If the tariffs are struck down, the refund question could become an entirely new fight.

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