Trump gambles years of China strategy in quest to secure trade deal

President Trump is abandoning — or actively undermining — core pillars of U.S. strategy toward China in pursuit of a legacy-defining trade deal with Xi Jinping.Why it matters: With tax cuts extended, tariff rates set and billions of dollars of investment flowing into the U.S., Trump is now fixated on the largest remaining puzzle piece in his economic agenda.Other flashpoints in the U.S.–China relationship — Taiwan tensions, tech restrictions, anti-Beijing alliances — have taken a back seat to the lucrative promise of a trade deal.Zoom in: Trump's staggering 50% tariffs on India — punishment for buying Russian oil — are threatening to unravel years of calculated U.S. efforts to position New Delhi as a bulwark against China.Trump has accused India of "fueling the Russian War Machine," while China — the world's top importer of Russian oil — has so far escaped similar punishment.India's nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reacted furiously, freezing plans to purchase arms from the U.S. and canceling a high-level defense visit to Washington, according to Reuters.The intrigue: Modi held phone calls this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — potentially signaling deeper alignment between the BRICS bloc of nations, led by China.Modi also plans to visit China later this month for the first time in seven years.The big picture: For Trump, who's guided more by personal diplomacy than strategic planning, bending U.S. policy to land a flashy summit with Xi is a gamble worth taking.AI: The Trump administration reversed its ban on Nvidia selling its H20 AI chips to China last month, alarming Republican hawks who fear that the move will "supercharge the Chinese AI capabilities commercially and militarily." A White House official stressed to Axios that other AI export controls remain in effect.Taiwan: The Trump administration told Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to cancel a planned stopover in New York this month en route to Latin America, cognizant that the visit would inflame tensions with China. Lai canceled his trip entirely.Alliances: Trump's strained relationship with Modi could result in the cancellation of this year's Quad summit, an Indo-Pacific security dialogue between the U.S., India, Australia and Japan that Trump embraced in his first term. The Pentagon is also reviewing whether to continue AUKUS, a Biden-negotiated defense pact designed to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.TikTok: Trump has defied a bipartisan U.S. law requiring the Chinese-owned app to be sold or banned — a stark reversal from his first term, when his administration led the charge to label TikTok a national security threat.The other side: Trump officials have left the door open to secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, while noting that Beijing already faces steep tariffs and has negotiated a 90-day truce with the U.S."China is a special case because it is — in one country — our largest trading problem and the biggest military threat," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News."So it's three-dimensional chess with the Chinese, as opposed to other countries, especially our allies ... The Chinese are tough, but we are tougher," he argued.Between the lines: When it comes to rhetoric, Trump has saved his harshest criticism for traditional U.S. allies — including the European Union — while pledging to fight China "in a very friendly fashion."He frequently touts his strong personal relationship with Xi Jinping, and praised China last month for taking "big steps" to curb the flow of fentanyl.Still, the administration has sought to maintain its tough-on-China reputation during trade talks — taking steps this month like prosecuting Chinese nationals for chip smuggling and publicly pressuring Intel's CEO to resign over his ties to Beijing.White House spokesman Kush Desai told us: "In just 200 short days, President Trump has remade the global trading order, ended the era of economic surrender, and leveled the playing field for America's industries and workers.""Every action taken by President Trump is based on putting America First, and his historic undertaking to restore American Greatness does not hinge on any one trade deal."

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