Trump offshore plan tests oil execs' risk tolerance — and 2028 fault lines

Data: EIA; Chart: Axios VisualsIf you lease it, will they come? Oil companies could soon(ish) start answering that question under President Trump's new plan for offshore drilling lease auctions. Why it matters: The Interior Department proposal envisions vast expansion in federal waters beyond the Gulf of America (renamed from Gulf of Mexico), where almost all action occurs today.The 2026-2031 draft unveiled on Thursday has sales up and down California's coast, Alaska's Arctic seas and other shores, and closer to Florida, in addition to current hubs.Catch up quick: Lease sales off Alaska would start next year, with California auctions starting in 2027 and eastern Gulf bidding in 2029. It also offers lots of tracts in the western and central Gulf, where drilling and production are already common. A few things on our radar...🍔 Industry's uncertain Alaskan appetite. Oil groups applauded the plan, and they're certainly psyched for more Gulf sales after Biden-era reticence. But interest in remote, costly, and controversial projects off Alaska is a big question mark.It'll depend how companies with the money and know-how to operate there see future prices and demand. Also in the mix: risks that a future White House won't be supportive of these years-long projects.🗳️ The high-energy politics. It's a new collision between Trump officials and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who's weighing a 2028 run. Newsom, California AG Rob Bonta, and the state's senators pledged to fight the plan. So did environmental groups.Waters off California's southern coast were once an industry hot spot. There's still some legacy production there.It's also an intra-GOP fight, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) criticizing Interior's proposal via aides. What we're watching: Potential changes to the plan — and court battles once it's final.Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.

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