Trump's megabill: What are the next steps and hurdles

Congressional Republicans are racing toward a self-imposed July 4 deadline to pass President Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill, though its ultimate fate remains uncertain Monday afternoon. This morning, the Senate began its marathon vote-a-rama, or a series of unlimited amendment votes, after finishing initial debate on the underlying bill last night.Why it matters: Trump's marquee legislation would cement some of the biggest policy goals of his second term. There's been criticism from both parties over the bill's cost as well as its cuts to Medicaid, and Democrats have zeroed in on the social safety net losses, funding for immigration enforcement and rollbacks of clean energy initiatives.The reconciliation package the Senate is considering would add $3.3 trillion in budget deficits over the next 10 years, according to a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate. That's more than the estimated $2.8 trillion in the House version passed by just one vote last month.Senate Republicans eked out a late-night win Saturday with a 51-49 vote to take up the bill.🏛️ Here's what needs to happen next to meet the July 4 deadline: 1. The full Senate must approve its version of the legislation. This could happen as soon as Monday.Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) only needs a simple majority of 51 votes for passage under budget reconciliation rules. Republicans can only afford to lose three votes. Zoom in: Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) are firm "no" votes. Already, the Senate's version of the bill has significant differences from the House version, including on Medicaid work requirements, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, wind and solar tax credits and a provision to nix taxes on tips.2. The House and Senate would have to resolve their different versions and negotiate a unified version of the bill. (Or the House could accept the Senate's changes wholesale and move to a final vote.)3. Both chambers ultimately must approve the same version of the bill. The House will have to come back from recess to vote on the Senate plan or a compromise — which wouldn't happen before Wednesday. 4. Trump would then be presented a bill to sign into law, which he wants to do alongside Independence Day celebrations on Friday.OK, but what are the major hangups? Republican infighting: Tillis has already announced he'll retire after getting Trump-backed primary threats for opposing the bill's cuts to Medicaid. But his exit and his statements about the rank partisanship of Washington underscore the extent to which moderate holdouts who will defy the president are a dwindling breed.Parliamentarian rulings: The parliamentarian has already forced some delays to hammer out revised bill text, like on the Medicaid provider tax. Additional rulings against bill language could lead to more last-minute tweaks — and further delays. Can Democrats do anything?They're expected to uniformly oppose the bill, but since Congress is using the reconciliation process, they don't have the power to stop the bill on their own. The party lacks majorities in either chamber and has little leverage, beyond forcing Senate amendment votes that put Republicans in tricky political positions — and stacking political messaging attacks for the midterms.

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