U.S. believes breakthrough is close on Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal

The White House is optimistic a new proposal from Trump envoy Steve Witkoff could help bridge the remaining gaps between Israel and Hamas and produce a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza soon, three sources involved in the negotiations tell Axios."If each side moves just a bit, we could have a deal within days," one U.S. source said.The big picture: President Trump has made clear he wants to end a war that has killed more than 54,000 Palestinians and more than 1,600 Israelis, according to the relevant authorities. But talks had been stalled for weeks, and Israel is undertaking a massive operation to flatten and occupy Gaza.The White House now believes it's within striking distance of a deal that could ultimately lead to an end to the war, though it would initially be temporary.Driving the news: Over the past two weeks, Witkoff has been negotiating with Prime Minister Netanyahu and his top adviser Ron Dermer, and with Hamas leaders in Doha through Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah.On Monday, following another round of talks with Bahbah, Hamas announced it had agreed to a U.S. proposal for a deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire and the release of five live hostages on the first day and five on the last day.Israel quickly rejected the proposal. Witkoff also pushed back, telling telling Axios Hamas misrepresented the U.S. offer and the group's position was "disappointing and unacceptable."Behind the scenes: The source familiar with the talks explained that Monday's dispute stemmed from a miscommunication that led Hamas, Israel, and the U.S. to interpret the proposal under discussion differently.Despite that setback, talks resumed Tuesday in an effort to reach a compromise. Bahbah held further meetings with senior Hamas officials in Doha and Witkoff met with Netanyahu's confidant Ron Dermer in Washington, the sources said.On Wednesday, Hamas issued a statement emphasizing that it was trying to reach an agreement with Witkoff on "a general framework" involving a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, renewed humanitarian aid, and the establishment of a technocratic committee to govern Gaza.Hamas claimed that framework included the release of ten live hostages and the remains of several deceased hostages, in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners — along with guarantees from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar.Two hours later, Witkoff appeared alongside President Trump in the Oval Office and announced he had drafted "a new term sheet" for President Trump's approval."I have some very good feeling about getting to a temporary ceasefire and a long-term resolution, a peaceful resolution of that conflict," Witkoff said.Between the lines: A senior Israeli official said their understanding is the new White House draft does not differ dramatically from previous versions, but includes some "wordsmithing" in an attempt to gain both Israel's and Hamas' agreement.The key changes focus on the clause regarding the guarantees Hamas wants in order to ensure that a serious negotiation on a permanent ceasefire will take place during the 60-day temporary ceasefire, and that as long as such talks are ongoing Israel won't unilaterally break the ceasefire, as it did in March. The Israeli official said the U.S. tried to find language that would give Hamas enough confidence that the temporary ceasefire would lead to a permanent one — while also allowing Israel to feel confident it was not committing in advance to ending the war.Another unresolved dispute concerns the sequence and timeline for hostage releases.Israel wants all ten live hostages released on the first day of the ceasefire, fearing Hamas might not uphold its commitments later on.Hamas, for its part, wants to release the hostages in stages to ensure Israel does not break the agreement and resume fighting before the 60-day period ends."There's not much wiggle room left with the wording. The hope is that Hamas, under pressure, will be willing to compromise on the guarantees it's asking for, and that Prime Minister Netanyahu will agree to compromise on the timeline for releasing the hostages. The test still lies ahead," the Israeli official said.Senior Israeli officials believe one factor that could make Hamas more inclined to sign a deal is the new humanitarian aid mechanism Israel attempted to launch this week."Hamas is very concerned that it no longer controls a large part of the humanitarian aid. If a deal is reached, aid distribution will return to the old model in which Hamas had much more control," said a senior Israeli official.What to watch: While an agreement on the principles of the deal would be a dramatic breakthrough after two months of failure, the parties would still need to negotiate further to agree on details like the names of the Israeli hostages and the Palestinian prisoners who will be released, and the staged withdrawal of Israeli forces from most the Gaza Strip.

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