U.S. economy should take off by fourth quarter, Bessent predicts

The U.S. economy will take off by the fourth quarter of this year as President Trump's policy changes take root, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday.Why it matters: The government's own data says inflation is rising and the labor market is weakening, but the administration says the reality is entirely to the contrary. What they're saying: "We believe that good policies are in place that are going to create good, high-paying jobs for the American people," Bessent said in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday.Bessent criticized the weak jobs data released Friday, extending recent administration claims that the numbers aren't correct and haven't been collected properly. (Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the August report, and said without evidence that the BLS rigged the data against him.)"President Trump was elected for change, and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right," Bessent said."I believe by the fourth quarter we are going to see a substantial acceleration."By the numbers: The U.S. economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter before growing 3.3% in the second quarter.The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow projection has that slowing slightly to 3% in the current quarter. At least some investors agree with Bessent, though; 2025 recession odds on prediction market Polymarket hit an all-time low on Friday.What to watch: Whether Bessent is right.Two pieces of key inflation data, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, are due to be reported this week, which will give a major signal into the economy's recent strength.

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