What to know about Trump's pitch for a $2,000 tariff dividend

President Trump on Sunday once again pitched the idea of sending $2,000 dividends to most Americans from tariff revenue. The big picture: It's not clear who'd actually receive the money, but economists expect a tariff dividend could cost hundreds of billions of dollars, potentially more than the government actually collects in a year. What they're saying: "We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place," Trump posted on Truth Social over the weekend. "A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone."Catch up quick: Trump has repeatedly touted the idea of tariff-based stimulus but has yet to execute it. He is doubling down as Republicans face the brunt of voter blame for high prices, which those tariffs helped fuel.The Supreme Court could potentially cancel the levies, though, raising the specter of refunds from what's been collected so far. Here's what to know about Trump's tariff dividend pitch: What Trump has said about $2,000 dividendsTrump said on One America News television network in October that he was considering checks worth between $1,000 and $2,000."We're going to do something, we're looking at something. No. 1, we're paying down debt. Because people have allowed the debt to go crazy," he said at the time. "We'll pay back debt, but we also might make a distribution to the people, almost like a dividend to the people of America," he added.He also said in July that the government might consider tariff rebate checks. Reality check: Rebates would return to consumers some of the higher prices they've paid as a result of the new tariffs — but could also worsen inflation, similar to what happened after previous rounds of government stimulus.Government-issued checks were popular for Trump in the early years of the pandemic.Is there enough money for tariff-based stimulus?Zoom in: The government generated $195 billion in tariff-related revenue in fiscal 2025, per the Treasury Department.Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation, said in a post on X that if Trump were to make the dividend payments available to everyone earning $100,000 or less, the policy would implicate about 150 million Americans, or about $300 billion in dividends. "The math gets worse accounting for the full budgetary impact of tariffs: a dollar of tariff revenue offsets about 24 cents of income and payroll tax revenue," she wrote. "Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump's proposed $300 billion rebate." What Bessent has said about the dividend Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said that Trump's suggested tariff payout could simply refer to tax savings from the One Big Beautiful Bill legislation. "It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans. Those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill," Bessent told ABC News' "This Week" Sunday."The real goal of tariffs is to rebalance trade and make it more fair," Bessent added.Yes, but: Despite Bessent's comments Sunday, Trump made clear in a new Truth Social post Monday that his proposal would in fact be a payment to people. What the Supreme Court has said about the dividend Last week, the Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of Trump's tariffs, with justices sounding skeptical of the president's authority.They appeared concerned that tariffs effectively acted as a revenue-raising tax, as opposed to a mechanism to solve any emergency caused by a trade imbalance.Solicitor General John Sauer told the justices that the tariffs do not interfere with Congress' taxing power. "The fact that [the tariffs] raise revenue is only incidental," Sauer said.