You could have made a fortune betting on an American pope

You could have made a lot of money by betting against the conventional conclave wisdom.Why it matters: Prediction markets never saw it coming: the selection of Chicago native Robert Prevost, the first American to ascend to the papacy in history and now Pope Leo XIV.State of play: The papal odds on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket swung heavily toward Cardinal Pietro Parolin after the white smoke signaled the end of the conclave on its second day.The 70-year-old Parolin served as the Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis and had been the favorite all along.But it was Prevost who prevailed in a stunning development on the second day of the conclave. His odds hovered in the range of 1% to 2% — or less — in the prediction markets since Pope Francis died.Context: Parolin was the favorite in the prediction markets since Francis died April 21, but his odds never sustainably exceeded 1 in 3 before Thursday.The second favorite was Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.The intrigue: After white smoke emanated from the Vatican on Thursday, bettors seemed to think the choice was Parolin — possibly under the premise that a speedy choice indicated a consensus pick.Parolin's odds to be named as the new pope jumped to nearly 70% soon after the white smoke appeared, up from about 27%–28% Thursday morning.Go deeper: Meet Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, the first American pope

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Americans in Rome react to US-born Pope being chosen as Francis’ successor

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Americans in Rome react to US-born Pope being chosen as Francis’ successor

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