Did Donald Trump's New Nuclear Threats Alarm Vladimir Putin?

Donald Trump and Vladimir PutinDonald Trump suddenly announced he was moving two of America’s nuclear submarines closer to Russia after “highly provocative statements” from a senior Kremlin official last week.The declaration was quite a surprise, especially considering the US president has previously spoken of his fond friendship for Vladimir Putin and even expressed sympathy for his invasion of Ukraine.As Kyiv’s most powerful ally – and the only major Western figure to show leniency towards Putin – Trump’s words matter.So how did we get here? And just how concerned is the Kremlin about what might happen next?Why did US nuclear rhetoric suddenly ramp up?The US president has been trying to pressure Putin to end his war in Ukraine for months, even offering to oversee a peace deal which would reward the Russian president for his brutal invasion with Ukrainian territory.But the Russian president has consistently dragged his feet.So Trump has gradually amped up his rhetoric.Last week, while in Scotland, he said he was going to reduce his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war down to 10 or 12 days – or the US would hit Russia with more sanctions.Former Russian president, close Putin ally and the deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, lashed out at the news on social media.He claimed Trump was “playing the ultimatum game with Russia” and said “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war”.The president responded: “Tell Medvedev, the failed former Russian president who thinks he is still in power, to be careful what he says. He is entering very dangerous territory.”Hours later, he posted: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev ... I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”He did not mention if the submarines were nuclear armed or nuclear powered, or where the “appropriate regions” are.How did Russia respond?After a weekend of silence, the Kremlin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov finally addressed Trump’s shifting stance on Monday, telling reporters: “In this case, it is obvious that American submarines are already on combat duty. This is an ongoing process, that’s the first thing.“But in general, of course, we would not want to get involved in such a controversy and would not want to comment on it in any way.“Of course, we believe that everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric.”He also claimed Moscow did not see Trump’s remarks as an escalation in nuclear tension, adding: “We do not believe that we are talking about any escalation now. It is clear that very complex, very sensitive issues are being discussed which, of course, are perceived very emotionally by many people.”So, what does all this mean? HuffPost UK spoke to several experts to find out.Not so chummy now: Trump, left, and Putin in 2018. ‘Russia understands this is a serious step’ “In a way, Trump is trying to play a game,” the director of International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Dr Neil Melvin said.Melvin suggested Trump was trying to call out Moscow for rattling the nuclear saber over the last three years.“He tried to put a kind of baseline underneath the escalation conversation with Russia around nuclear weapons,” the expert told HuffPost UK. “This is why the Russians haven’t responded because they’ve actually understood that this is quite a serious step.”“Trump is the first US president I think to openly challenge this new position of Russia,” he said, explaining that the he two countries are now looking to re-establish a conversation about just what escalation looks like.Melvin said this was a very different place to where the world was during the Cold War, when the US and the USSR were also in a standoff over nuclear weapons – and everyone used “careful language”.He pointed out that Trump’s post on TruthSocial was without its usual capital letters or exclamation marks, perhaps indicating it was a more serious and a “calculated response by the United States”.The specialist said Moscow’s delay in reply probably stemmed from Russia being unable to decide whether to escalate or just make a rhetorical statement.“Russia has been anxious to avoid direct confrontation with the US, even though they basically talk about being in a war with the States,” he said.Melvin claimed other western leaders will “will broadly support” Trump’s latest comments, because “there has been some concern that Russia has been blurring the line between conventional wars and nuclear”.“This is actually a step towards re-imposing a stronger distinction,” he noted.This is not a ‘sensible or coherent’ strategyMeanwhile, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow from Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, suggested these were mainly empty words from the US president – and so Moscow will not be intimidated at all.He said: “With the submarine comment, Trump has discovered another means of appearing ‘tough on Russia’ without actually doing anything that would be on concern to Moscow – and there are plenty of other reasons why he might be seeking headlines that suggest he is taking a firmer like with Putin.”Giles pointed to the domestic struggles Trump is facing with the economy, and the backlash among his base over his past friendship with late convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein.The specialist said: “Trump has taken every possible step to pressure Russia short of actually doing something.”He concluded: “Whatever Trump’s latest verbal salvo at Moscow may be, there’s one thing it isn’t: a strategy for dealing with Russia, let alone a sensible or coherent one.”Giles claimed the Kremlin will be watching Trump closely, but “perhaps as much out of curiosity as of concern as to what he will do next.”‘The Kremlin was unprepared’Russia analyst from the Institute for the Study of War, Christina Harward, told HuffPost UK that Russia’s response has been “incredibly limited thus far”.She pointed out that there’s been no response from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Russian Ministry of Defence.“High-ranking Russian officials very often parrot the same phrases as each other, telling us that Russian officials’ public rhetoric is highly coordinated within the Kremlin itself,” she said.“The Kremlin is also known to disseminate manuals to Russian state media with clear instructions about how to cover certain current events.“The fact that we didn’t see a coordinated response over the weekend to Trump’s announcement indicates that the Kremlin was unprepared for this move and is likely still working on how to publicly react. We may start to see a more unified official reaction in the coming days.”What now?While the specialists seem split over just how much impact Trump’s comments will have on the Kremlin, only one thing seems certain right now: Putin still has no plans to withdraw from Ukraine any time soon.US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow this week to discuss peace talks, days before Trump’s new tariffs against Russia are set to kick in (August 9).But Russia continues to target Ukraine almost every single night with drone and missile attacks, while Putin is still pushing to gain control over four Ukrainian regions to which Moscow currently occupies, and a promise from Kyiv will never join Nato.Related...Trump Threatens Putin Ally After He Dared To Compare Him To ‘Sleepy Joe’Trump Tries To Give Putin Another Slap On The Wrist With New Deadline To End Ukraine WarPutin Is Tightening His Grip On Russia's Internet With Dramatic New Tactic, UK Says

Comments

Breaking news

Huffpost uk

‘This trend has the potential to end in absolute tragedy’: The new social media challenge that has authorities issuing stark warnings

about 2 hours ago

New Ohio bill wants to make state registry of people who skip job interviews

Independent

Comments

Breaking news

Did Donald Trump's New Nuclear Threats Alarm Vladimir Putin?

Dame Stella Rimington the first woman to run MI5 dies aged 90

Owner of ‘Pablo Escobar plane’ used as Airbnb embroiled in row over noisy parties

‘Cult leader’ admits to getting sensual back massages from ‘nuns’ during trial

British boy, 15, sneaks onto plane to Italy instead of flying home with parents

Child plunges from height from east London building

Archaeologists uncover 800-year-old bones with strange details & they offer a surprising insight into Aztec life

Patanjali is a medicine that is beneficial in skin diseases, how to use it, know

The real story of each match starts with the innings, know what is the ICC rule on the innings?

Avoiding these simple foods could help people lose twice as much weight, study finds

Gifford Fire destroys 65,000 acres as high wind warnings raise fears California blaze could grow

Trump administration planning to roll back abortion access for veterans

Ghislaine Maxwell not welcome in Texas ‘Club Fed’ prison camp, says inmate: ‘Human trafficking is a violent crime’

Dozens killed as Palestinians in Gaza scramble for aid from air and land

Care worker who left suicidal teenager alone had fake ID and fled UK after she died, inquest told

Americans are slashing their spending as worries over the economy grow: ‘This time feels different’

‘This trend has the potential to end in absolute tragedy’: The new social media challenge that has authorities issuing stark warnings

New Ohio bill wants to make state registry of people who skip job interviews

Fox host fawns over ‘good jeans’ Sydney Sweeney on gun range: ‘As a single guy ... you love to see it’

Nearly 600 Israeli ex-security officials appeal to Trump to end war

Toddler was left to die in hot car while in state custody. Now a foster care worker is facing charges

Welcome to the nation’s ‘super deportation center,’ inspired by Amazon and FedEx but ‘with human beings’

What the heck is ‘scrumping’? Why humans are so good at digesting alcohol

Reform’s 19-year-old council leader risks contempt of court over rape case comments

‘You can literally pregame recess with these’: Experts warn of caffeine pouches targeting teens

Hamas is using images of starving Jewish hostages to destroy ceasefire hopes - and that suits Netanyahu

Former New York prison guard sentenced to 15 years for beating death of inmate

Wildfires mapped: Where will be affected by smoky conditions this week?

Was JD Vance’s birthday picture photoshopped? Questions raised over GOP’s celebratory tweet

Crocodiles euthanised after turning to cannibalism at abandoned farm

Terrifying moment commuters flee smoke-filled train after it burst into flames in New Jersey

Major increase in colorectal cancer in younger adults tied to pandemic years, researchers say

The Trump administration is using ‘fascist propaganda’ to promote its mass deportation campaign, experts say

Lloyds leads FTSE 100 up as European stocks rally

Scientists say they have solved the mystery of what killed more than 5 billion sea stars

Storm Floris Kingston Bridge damage sparks traffic chaos as commuters head home

Brits told to bin three brands of wet wipes now in urgent bacteria warning

Driver charged after three-vehicle crash near entrance of Blair Drummond Safari Park left woman in hospital

Woman picks up £2.67 Too Good To Go bag and can't believe value of items

Man appears in court charged with attempted murder after police officer 'stabbed'

Praise for work of Strathaven Memory Club from MSP

NHS warns of life-threatening condition that many unknowingly have

SQA exam results delayed as Storm Floris strikes postal services

Kilmarnock boss bemoans red card and penalty call in Livingston clash

Joanna Cherry pledges to use memoirs to help 'clear' Alex Salmond's name

Serial offender threatened pub worker with knuckleduster

Glasgow children's nurse behind bars after £200,000 drugs and dirty cash raid

Zoo asks people to donate unwanted pets as food for its predators

Teen stabbed to death is named - as three suspects remain in custody

Tourist, 27, has finger torn off by parade horse in Spanish fiesta horror

Half a million free Cinnamon Social slices up for grabs in Ole & Steen's UK-wide giveaway

Saudi Arabian student 'attacked and stabbed to death' on 10-week UK placement

Princess Eugenie enjoys sun-soaked holiday with A-lister 'brother she never had'

Woman says famous Scottish island 'isn't always like the videos you see online'

'I saw man shoplifting at BP station but staff's response to me left me floored'

'My husband seemed confused on Christmas holiday - then he died in front of me'

Cereal bars might seem healthy - but they contain additives linked to weight gain

Fake name care worker fled UK after eating disorder teen died under his watch

Meghan Markle will 'never win over public' like Queen Camilla due to major complaint

Mirror's Daily Digest - top five stories you need to read tonight