A big blue wave for Democrats, and two paths forward

Democrats delivered a resounding rebuke to President Trump in all five of the most-watched races in Tuesday's elections, as voters responded to candidates' promises to address frustrations with high prices and Trump. It wasn't just that Democrats, as predicted, won key races in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and New York City. In race after race, the margins of victory — including double-digit wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races — were what resonated. County after county moved blue."The Democratic Party is back," declared House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist elected New York City's mayor, told supporters his victory represented "a mandate for a new kind of politics, a mandate for a city we can afford."The big picture: Even as Democrats celebrated late Tuesday, it was clear the results didn't settle the Democratic Party's civil war over the best way to move forward after its crushing losses in 2024.Progressive and moderate Democrats both emerged with genuine measures of victory Tuesday — and they're already wielding it as evidence that it's their side that should lead the party out of the wilderness in 2026 and 2028.Progressives in New York City and California fired up their base to elect Mamdani, and to redraw California's congressional map to help Democrats' push to flip five U.S. House seats next year.Centrist and establishment Democrats had clear victories in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania:Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey won races for governor by double-digit margins after touting their law enforcement bona fides, promising to lower costs and running against Trump's management of the economy. In Virginia's attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones — widely viewed as particularly vulnerable because of a texting scandal — led Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by 6 points with 95% of the vote counted.Virginians "chose pragmatism over partisanship" and the "Commonwealth over chaos," Spanberger — the first woman ever elected Virginia governor — told supporters in declaring victory.In Pennsylvania, Democrats carried three Supreme Court contests on an anti-Trump, pro-abortion rights message. Democrats' celebrations were even a split screen when it came to surrogates — many of whom happen to be potential 2028 presidential candidates:Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) were active campaigners in New York City and California.In Virginia and New Jersey, Spanberger and Sherrill deployed an army of more mainstream Democratic validators such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.Zoom in: Progressives and moderates found common ground in their focus on affordability, but differed wildly on solutions.Mamdani called for freezing rent for millions of New York City residents, making city buses free, and opening city-run grocery stores.Spanberger and Sherrill blamed Trump's policies such as tariffs, federal layoffs and his "bad budget bill" while pledging to lower costs. "No sales tax increases, period," Sherrill promised in her closing TV ad.Between the lines: For the Democratic Party, the dueling narratives will continue into 2026 and 2028. Left-wing elected officials and strategists argue that the party has become so unpopular that it needs young outsiders like Mamdani running on an unapologetic progressive vision — a mirror image of what Trump and his allies did in the Republican Party over the past decade.Moderate and establishment Democrats argue that it was progressives who made Democrats unpopular in the first place, thanks to their embrace of slogans such as "defund the police." They say the party needs more center-left, practical candidates with appealing biographies.Former President Barack Obama subtly nodded at his party's divide by campaigning in New Jersey and Virginia — but not in New York City. He didn't endorse Mamdani, but did call him to offer to be a sounding board, The New York Times reported.Obama's team said the former president doesn't weigh in on municipal elections.The other side: Trump suggested in a Truth Social post that Republicans underperformed because of the federal government shutdown and because he wasn't on the ballot. He also reiterated his demand that fellow Republicans in the Senate break the filibuster so they wouldn't need any Democratic vote to fund the government and end the shutdown.

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