Cash-strapped Americans signal rising costs could be Trump's midterm headache

Data: Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos; Chart: Axios VisualsA majority of voters blame President Trump for rising prices, according to a recent poll, marking a possible midterm warning sign for Republicans.The big picture: The cost of living is top of mind for Americans one year out from the 2026 election, which is set to serve as a major referendum on Trump's second-term agenda.And as voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in mayoral, gubernatorial and other races, Democratic candidates have honed their messages around affordability. Driving the news: A majority of U.S. adults say they're spending more money on their groceries and utilities than they were last year, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted late last month.Some seven in ten Americans say they're spending more on groceries compared to last year. That comes as federal food assistance hangs in limbo amid a government shutdown and food banks brace for unprecedented need.Nearly nine in ten Democrats said they were spending more at the grocery store. While fewer Republicans agreed, a majority (52%) still said they were spending more money.Fifty-nine percent said they were spending more on utilities, while just 6% said they were spending less.Friction point: Among all U.S. adults, 59% said they blamed Trump a great deal or a good amount for the current rate of inflation.Among Republicans, 20% blamed Trump a good or great deal. Another 48%, when asked how much they blamed Trump, chose "not much."The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on the poll's findings.Worth noting: The Consumer Price Index showed prices rising at a slower pace than expected in September, according to a delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics report.But Americans are still reporting pocketbook strain. And as Axios' Margaret Talev and Neil Irwin report, high food prices disproportionately impact the working class.Some staple goods that people frequently buy, like beef and eggs, have experienced particularly sharp spikes. And while utility prices fell in September, they're up nearly 12% over the past year.Zoom in: Fifty-eight percent of U.S. adults said they believed imposing tariffs hurts the economy, a sentiment shared by 88% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans.Axios' Pete Gannon reports that tariffs have made pricing strategy a trickier balancing act as companies race to offset tariffs.Between the lines: The economy — and the key word, affordability — appears to be a central part of Democrats' election messaging.Affordability has been the dominant issue of progressive mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's campaign that dazzled young voters, and the economy has been a major focus of Abigail Spanberger's and Mikie Sherrill's gubernatorial runs.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) predicted in a recent interview with Semafor that affordability will drive midterm results: "I can't see into the future, but I see Republicans losing the House if Americans are continuing to go paycheck-to-paycheck," she said.The bottom line: Nearly half of respondents in a recent Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll said it was harder to afford groceries compared to a year ago.Harris Poll CEO John Gerzema said that respondents "don't feel like things are changing fast enough. This is going to be a significant issue for the president."Methodology: This poll was conducted among 2,725 U.S. adults, Oct. 24-28, 2025. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the full sample, including design effects due to weighting. The error margin is plus or minus 2.2 points for the sample of 2,203 registered voters and 2.8 points for half-sample questions.Go deeper: Holiday shoppers trade up — and down

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