CEO confidence bounces back as trade and tariff worries ease

Data: The Conference Board and the Business Council; Chart: Axios VisualsA key measure of CEO confidence bounced back this summer, but business leaders are still slightly negative about the economy and business conditions, according to data released Thursday morning and shared first on Axios.Why it matters: It's another sign that the business community is coming to terms with tariffs, heartened by the administration's announcement of trade deals. The jitters triggered by President Trump's initial "Liberation Day" announcement appear to have eased.A ripping stock market helps, too.By the numbers: Confidence rose 15 points, to 49, in the three months ending in July, per the report from the Conference Board, a nonpartisan think tank and the Business Council, an association of CEOs.That's a sharp upward turn. Yes, but: At 49, the index measure still isn't a top grade. A number below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses."The improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes between the U.S. and China became less intense and potentially reflects ongoing progress on trade negotiations," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at the Conference Board.Friction point: For the first time since 2020, more CEOs said they were planning to shrink their workforce (34%) than expand it (27%).Though a plurality anticipated no changes, it's yet another indicator of a cooling labor market.Zoom in: "Tariffs and trade" ranked third on a list of CEOs' top concerns, after "geopolitical instability" and "cyber" — falling back from the top worry in the second quarter.But the impacts of tariffs also played out under the hood of the headline numbers. A large majority of CEOs reported increasing supplier costs, as well as increases for materials and technology.93% said they would manage costs by "leveraging technology," through AI or automation. Another 89% said they'd negotiate with suppliers — 64% said they'd pass costs on to customers, a worrying flag for inflation.How it works: From July 14 through July 28, the Conference Board surveyed 122 CEOs in the Fortune Global 500, the vast majority in the U.S.What we're watching: The rubber hits the road on Thursday, when increased tariffs on imports from many nations kick in.

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