Exclusive: Why the White House is convinced it's winning the shutdown

The White House's political operation is telling congressional Republicans to hold firm on the government shutdown, citing internal and external polling that show Democrats' numbers are eroding.Why it matters: Since the shutdown started Oct. 1, Democrats have boasted that public opinion is on their side. But the trend line appears to be shifting, according to internal White House polling data viewed by Axios."Democrats are taking on water. And we have a higher pain tolerance," a senior administration official told Axios.In his first term, President Trump was highly sensitive to being blamed for a shutdown, and there has been an undercurrent of bipartisan belief that he will try to get a deal from Democrats this time.But so far, Trump has displayed none of the concerns or worry he had in 2018-2019, during the longest shutdown of 35 days.Zoom in: Congressional Democrats' net favorability rating has decreased six percentage points in two weeks, while Republicans' number ticked up four points.As of the latest polling, 33% of voters view congressional Democrats favorably, compared to 54% who view them favorably. That's a net negative rating of -21%. The GOP's rating is also a net negative, -8%.Between the lines: 44% in the internal White House polling blame the shutdown on President Trump and the GOP-led Congress. 38% blame Democrats.But public opinion has shifted a net of seven percentage points against Democrats. Two weeks ago, Democrats had a 13-point advantage on who was to blame. Now that lead has been cut by more than half.The trend line of the White House's polling numbers are consistent with YouGov/Economist surveys that showed Democrats taking more blame as the shutdown grinds on.The other side: Democrats believe they're on the right side of public opinion in demanding the extension of some Affordable Care Act tax credits in return for backing a so-called "clean" continuing resolution to fund the government.What the White House is saying: The senior administration official who shared the poll numbers with Axios said that "Trump won't negotiate with hostage-takers in Congress because it inspires more hostage-taking.""Our research shows that the people who know the most about the shutdown know that the Democrats aren't voting for the clean CR. So time is on our side," the officials said.What's next: The administration is following through with a threat to fire more federal workers as part of what's called a "Reduction in Force" (RIF) policy.Federal workers, who disproportionately donate to Democrats over Republicans, tend to disproportionately live in states with Democratic senators. Maryland, Hawaii and Virginia lead the way.The White House budget office has also advanced the notion that furloughed federal workers aren't automatically entitled to backpay."If the Senate Democrats want the RIFs to end, they can end the shutdown. It's that simple," the official said. "They will lose this."

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