Grocery bills are rising as the planet cooks

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios VisualsGrocery prices are up 3% over the last year, the latest Consumer Price Index report shows, representing a quiet rise broadly in line with expectations that could still pinch a lower-income family's budget.Why it matters: With everyday essentials such as coffee rising 13.4% since last June, American families are feeling the pinch at the supermarket, as climate change and other factors decrease predictability in food costs. Trump's volatile tariff policies have not yet caused the price of food essentials to soar, but signs of inflation is beginning to show amid Trump's trade war, Axios reported last week.Zoom in: The price of uncooked ground beef is up 10.3% over the last year, and the climate change is having ripple effects on multiple essential food items. A multi-year drought in the Great Plains led to higher feed costs for ranchers, shrinking cattle herds at a time where farms in the U.S. are declining more broadly, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report.Coffee is up 13.4% since last June, in part because of crop losses from heat and drought in major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. More than 99% of America's coffee must be imported, with roughly 80% of un-roasted beans shipped in from Columbia and Brazil, according to the USDA.Yes but: Not all food inflation is climate-related. Eggs are up an eye-popping 27.3% this year, and chicken was slightly impacted at 3.9%, after bird flu led to mass culling of flocks. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced that bird flu is no longer an emergency earlier this month.Zoom out: Climate change is beefing up extreme weather across the U.S., making it harder for grocers to keep shelves stocked. Heavy rainfall can harm food production by eroding soil and depleting the ground of nutrients, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.Extreme heat can deplete the amount of water in soils, causing significant declines in crop and livestock productivity, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.Driving the news: Extreme weather is contributing to global price shocks worldwide, according to a new report published Monday from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.Spain produces over 40% of the world's olive oil. After an intense drought across Southern Europe from 2022 to 2023, the price of olive oil to shot up 50% across the European Union by January 2024.In Japan, an August heatwave sent rice prices up 48% by September 2024, as the country experienced its hottest summer since officials began collecting regional records in 1946.Global cocoa prices were almost 300% higher in April 2024 after a heatwave in Ghana and Ivory Coast. The region produces about 60% of the world's cocoa.The bottom line: "Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it's already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world," said Maximilian Kotz, the lead author of the study. Go Deeper: Ground beef prices 2025: Why cost of meat, steak is at record high

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