Housing is outpacing population growth, but there's a catch

Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Note: 2020 values are estimated; Chart: Axios VisualsNationwide housing growth outpaced population gains over the last decade, yet affordability remains a huge roadblock for many would-be homebuyers.Why it matters: Housing is emerging as a key topic politically, especially for some Democrats worried about their long-term electoral prospects.If people keep leaving blue states in favor of red states with cheaper housing and other necessities, the thinking goes, Democrats could find themselves in deep mathematical trouble in future elections based on updated census results.By the numbers: The number of housing units across the U.S. increased by 9.5% between 2014 and 2024, while the population grew by 6.7%, per U.S. Census Bureau data.Population growth is driven by natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration.Yes, but: That only tells part of the story — just because housing exists doesn't mean it's affordable.U.S. home prices rose nearly 50% from mid-2019 to mid-2025, per the National Association of Realtors.Between the lines: High mortgage rates over the last few years have depressed supply in many markets.If you're a homeowner with an older mortgage locked in at 3% or so, the idea of moving into a new home at double that rate or more isn't exactly attractive. That means fewer existing homes are hitting the market as people sit pretty with their comparatively low rates.High rates also make newly built homes more expensive over time for buyers needing a mortgage.Stunning stat: Over the last five years, one in six prospective homebuyers has given up because they couldn't find a house they liked or could afford, a recent Bankrate survey found.The latest: Home prices are starting to fall in some areas, though experts warn not to expect a major nationwide cooldown just yet.What's next: A new bipartisan housing bill aims to ease new home construction and boost supply, but the ongoing government shutdown is currently sucking away most of Washington's attention and energy.