How tariffs are expected to shape holiday shopping sales

U.S. retailers rushed in goods ahead of tariffs — a move a new Wells Fargo report says could hit prices, product mix and holiday promotions.Why it matters: Shoppers may see earlier sales, higher prices and fewer choices as retailers adjust.The big picture: Wells Fargo's 2025 Supply Chain Report, released Wednesday, projects a landscape of altered holiday shopping patterns.After tariffs were announced in April — with a subsequent pause for some items, and a 90-day China extension as well — retailers slowed orders until there was more clarity.Some big chains front-loaded inventory to stay ahead of tariff costs.Others paused, then placed leaner orders — focusing on bestsellers while skipping fringe products.Zoom in: Here's how the tariff impacts are expected to show up.Prices: "You can't just mark everything up 5-10%, you have to be very methodical on certain items and how you're approaching it," said Adam Davis, managing director for Wells Fargo Retail Finance, one of the report's authors. Deals: Retailers may trim promotions rather than hike list prices, said Jeremy Jansen, head of global originations for Wells Fargo Supply Chain Finance. Expect fewer big-ticket rebates like appliances, Jansen said on a call with reporters.Choices: Retailers are cutting units and narrowing assortments to control costs. It's using the "theme of inventory rationalization," Davis said. "We don't need five red vases. What we can have is three red vases."State of play: The effects of tariffs should start surfacing this fall.Some tariff-sensitive goods — like apparel, furniture and holiday décor — will be priced higher or stocked in smaller assortments.Shoppers may see earlier promotions in September and October, as retailers try to spread out demand and avoid December stockouts.Consumers will still pounce on deals, but the bargains may be more selective than in past years, Davis said.More from Axios:Starbucks' pumpkin spice latte is back without price hikeCheap icons like Costco hot dog, AriZona tea defy inflationPokémon, trading cards have leveled up to retail gold

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