Job market gloom hasn't been this bad since the Great Recession

Data: University of Michigan; Chart: Axios VisualsAmericans haven't been this gloomy about the job market since the Great Recession.Why it matters: Fears about joblessness have surged since President Trump unveiled plans to impose steep tariffs on foreign goods. The economy might have hit a soft patch, but it has so far dodged the bleak predictions from a few months ago. Consumers are still bracing for the worst to come.By the numbers: As of early August, that pessimism was in step with that of the 2008 financial crisis. About 62% of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan's latest monthly survey. That's bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession. What they're saying: The concerns about higher unemployment are paired with worries about an inflation resurgence. "Although CPI inflation has not surged, our data show that consumers are still bracing for an increase in inflation to come," Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey, wrote in a report."Moreover, consumers are also concerned that labor markets will weaken."The intrigue: Economic conditions are strikingly different compared to the last time consumers felt this glum.Then: The economy was in the midst of what was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The stock market was falling off a cliff, unemployment filings soared and the jobless rate would ultimately peak at 10%.Now: The economy is slowing, though fears are worse than the official data suggests so far. The unemployment rate is holding at a historically low 4.2%, as of July.Hiring has stalled, but so have layoffs. There are fewer unemployment filings now than in July 2021, when a record-low share of Americans (14%) said they anticipated higher unemployment in the year ahead. The bottom line: Consumers are bracing for the worst. So far, those fears have not been self-fulfilling, with signs of healthy shopping patterns this summer.

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