MAGA's warning to Trump's heir

MAGA's growing independence as a political force is an early warning to the GOP's next leader about the limits — and dangers — of inheriting a populist juggernaut.Why it matters: Even when President Trump is out of sync with MAGA — like on Jeffrey Epstein — he can still bring supporters to heel. That power stems from the personal loyalty and shared enemies they've forged over a decade of political warfare.But as both MAGA diehards and establishment Republicans have long acknowledged, there's only one Trump.Whoever comes next won't command the same personal allegiance — or the same ability to rein in the base if it veers from the party's regularly scheduled programming.Driving the news: For a brief moment last month, the tail was wagging the dog.The MAGA base erupted over the Trump administration's insistence that there was nothing more to know about Epstein's sex trafficking operation and 2019 death in prison.Trump, visibly annoyed by his supporters' obsession, attempted to divert attention to his record and new conspiracy theories about his political opponents.MAGA grumbled that Trump was out of touch, and warned that the administration was bleeding trust.But the flare-up didn't last.A Wall Street Journal piece tying Trump to Epstein snapped the movement back into line, uniting them against the "fake news."Then came Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's flurry of new disclosures about the 2016 Russia investigation, redirecting MAGA outrage toward the "Deep State."Trump's gravitational pull did the rest.The big picture: The Epstein uproar showcased a new degree of independence for the 10-year-old MAGA movement, which was built on the personality and prowess of one man.MAGA sources warn the movement's appetite for unity won't naturally extend to anyone not named Donald Trump, and that future leaders will be on far shorter leashes if they cross the base on its core issues.What they're saying: "The reason Trump can be so formidable is he inspires that fanatical degree of direct loyalty. And it also means people in his own party can't easily stand against him without everyone getting very angry at them," one MAGA media figure told Axios."What will be hard to capture is Trump's authenticity. That's what makes him so beloved…That engenders a level of trust from the base that I've never really seen before in my political life," added one MAGAworld operative."The smartest candidate will understand that everything is in deference to the base and present it that way."Zoom out: Some Trump allies have been more successful than others in winning over the MAGA base.Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are now beloved, having convinced supporters that they've genuinely learned from their past criticisms of Trump or "neoconservative" views.Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), meanwhile, is still viewed skeptically by MAGA, which recognizes his personal friendship with Trump but disdains his support for stronger U.S. involvement abroad, including aid to Ukraine.Between the lines: Breitbart editor-in-chief Alex Marlow told Axios there's a blueprint for MAGA's next leader, but that "they are going to have to earn it the way [Trump] did.""The formula is not hard to follow: make the centerpiece of the agenda issues that are popular with base voters (America First nationalism) and average Americans (populism), ignore the left, ignore the GOP establishment as much as possible, and don't get wrapped up in every online frenzy," Marlow said."Rack up victories as quickly as humanly possible to control the media narrative. Do this and you'll build a track record. If you can do that while communicating well, the base will be there for you."The bottom line: Any Republican with presidential ambitions will have to woo the base to even get close to Trump's grassroots dominance.But no one knows what will actually work a decade after Trump remade the GOP in his image — or how the movement might respond when he departs the White House for the final time."It's almost like the event horizon of a black hole," the MAGA media figure told Axios. "You just cannot see beyond it."

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