RFK Jr.'s power play faces key September tests

After roiling the leadership of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is poised to make more moves this month that will test how much free rein he has within the administration. Why it matters: Republicans are counting on Kennedy and his MAHA base to deliver in the midterm elections. But more bulldozing of evidence-based public health policy could fray his support within the White House and Congress. Friction points: Kennedy said last week that he expects to deliver a report on the environmental causes of autism this month. His handpicked vaccine advisory committee is set to meet on the availability of COVID boosters on Sept. 18.Also expected are simplified dietary guidelines and a presidentially commissioned report on ways to reduce chronic disease in children. New members of senior leadership will be installed in the coming weeks, CDC acting director Jim O'Neill, a top adviser to Kennedy, wrote on X.President Trump on Monday questioned whether the COVID shots developed during his first term are safe and effective after Kennedy limited who can get them, and said that pharmaceutical companies need to publicly substantiate their success.Zoom in: Kennedy has been legally adept at "manipulating the bureaucracy" around COVID vaccines, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan and a vocal Kennedy critic. The result is effectively limiting access to the shots without technically banning them.The expectation is he will use the CDC to stoke more questions about the vaccines' safety and effectiveness — and possibly erect more barriers. Yes, but: The CDC purge is prompting medical associations to ramp up more organized opposition. Nine former CDC directors who served under Democrat and Republican presidents condemned Kennedy's actions to dismantle the agency on Monday. And some blue states are reportedly considering issuing different public health guidance from the Trump administration's, in a sign they're increasingly comfortable picking a high-profile fight with Kennedy.On the Hill, Senate health committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — who provided a key vote to advance Kennedy's nomination despite concerns over vaccine policy — said last week that the leadership upheaval at CDC merits congressional oversight, though he hasn't said what he would do. The big picture: Kennedy's core base sees him "really taking hold of HHS, which is no easy task," Joseph Varon, president of the Kennedy-aligned group Independent Medical Alliance, said in an email."We expect more fireworks from those deeply opposed to reform, but the Secretary has the President's confidence, so we're looking forward to an acceleration of reform activity," Varon added.Reality check: Kennedy supporters were key to delivering Trump the White House last year, and their backing for GOP candidates is a political asset going into the midterms, according to Chris Meekins, managing director at Raymond James and a first-term Trump health official. "Our base case is Secretary Kennedy remains in the role until after the midterm elections. There may be lines RFK cannot cross, but it is probably further than most appreciate," he wrote in an analyst note Friday. But Kennedy will hold less political importance for Trump after that, and concern over his potential to mount another presidential campaign may lead to his departure, Meekins said. Kennedy has so far said he isn't running for the White House in 2028. What they're saying: "September is shaping up to be yet another month of MAHA wins — and another month of the same, tired hysteria from Democrats who have yet to show any regret for shoving unscientific mandates and school closures down the throats of everyday Americans during the COVID era," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said in an emailed statement that the MAHA movement has spread across the country under Kennedy and President Trump, and its mission "will continue to move forward at full momentum."What we're watching: Whether Kennedy's efforts to rally his coalition will carry the day and help Republicans, or whether backlash — or a rough respiratory virus season — will test the limits of his power. Tina Reed contributed.

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