Senate holds firm on aggressive timeline for Trump budget bill

Senate GOP leadership is full steam ahead on passing the "one big, beautiful bill" next week and giving House Speaker Mike Johnson an outside chance to put it on President Trump's desk by July 4.Why it matters: It's an aggressive timeline of their own making, and there are a lot of angsty lawmakers. But Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is sticking to the plan, for now.Thune told reporters Wednesday his plan is to bring the bill to the floor mid-next week, and they are "making good headway" on ensuring key parts are approved by the parliamentarian and Byrd bath.But Thune is also facing early backlash from the House, where GOP leadership feels blindsided by the changes to Medicaid — and uncertain whether the new version could pass the chamber, as Punchbowl reported.What they're saying: Asked if they can get the votes needed for passage next week, Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo) told Axios, "That's the plan, yes.""I don't expect it to slip," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of leadership, told Axios of the July 4 deadline. She is hoping and expecting the process to finish by next Friday.Congress is on recess the week of July 4, making June 27 the effective deadline to get a bill passed by Independence Day. Leaders have threatened to keep working into the break, if needed.What to watch: "I don't think the votes are quite there yet," Capito admitted."It's coming up like a freight train," Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told Axios when asked if the July 4 deadline was realistic to address her concerns with the bill."I don't think they're at 51," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a key holdout, told reporters about the possible vote count. He argues that the impact of the Medicaid provider tax changes on rural hospitals "has become a huge sticking point." "The provider tax and state-directed payments are important reforms," Thune told reporters on Tuesday about the provider tax changes.Zoom in: Leadership has been active in negotiating with key holdouts.Hawley has pitched various solutions to leadership, whom he says he has been talking with "constantly." One of his ideas includes a provider relief fund for rural hospitals.Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) told Axios he has "ongoing" conversations with leadership to win his vote and expects a version of the REINS Act to make it into the final bill.The Senate also needs to finalize its number for the state and local tax (SALT) deductions cap.The other side: Not everyone believes in leadership's optimism. Some senators and staffers expect Byrd bath issues, senator complaints and even troubles with the House to ultimately push the deadline back."It's probably 50-50, to be honest with you," said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). Catch up quick: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles doubled down on the July 4 deadline during a closed-door meeting with senators on Wednesday afternoon — urging Senate passage next week.This comes after Vice President Vance sparked some confusion among senators about the firmness of the deadline when he spoke with senators the day before.July 4 has always been a somewhat manufactured deadline, with some Republicans viewing the debt ceiling X date — in August or September — as the most critical date to watch.

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