The governor-to-Senate pipeline is suddenly flowing in the other direction

For the fourth time this year, a term-limited governor is saying a hard "NO" to the Senate, dealing big blows to party leaders John Thune (R-S.D.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).Why it matters: The governor-to-Senate pipeline is reversing this cycle.👎 Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) won't challenge vulnerable Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in 2026. Thune flew to Atlanta last month to recruit Kemp, as Axios scooped.👎 Michigan, Kentucky and New Hampshire: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) are skipping open races next year.Zoom in: At least three senators are now looking at ditching the Senate for the governor's mansion.In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has already announced a run for governor.In Tennessee and Alabama, Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Tommy Tuberville (R) are seriously considering gubernatorial campaigns, as well.Since 1986, 54 incumbent or former governors have run for Senate seats — compared to just 14 sitting or former senators who ran for governor, according to a recent analysis by Ballotpedia.The senators won gubernatorial elections 73% of the time, while governors won their Senate races just 48% of the time.Behind the scenes: Senate leaders are grappling with thin margins, big personalities and President Trump's iron grip.🏡 The Senate is also less glamorous than it once was. It's politically untenable to move your family out of the home state anymore, requiring lots of back-and-forth travel while in session for most lawmakers.💰 Senators haven't gotten a raise in 16 years. Meanwhile, Senate campaigns are more expensive than ever.What they're saying: Sen. (and former Gov.) Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told Axios that governors "have the ability to actually make a difference in a short period of time. ... In the Senate, it's pretty archaic, and process takes time."Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), another former governor, told Axios how he counsels governors interested in the Senate: "The one thing you don't do as governor is armed services, foreign relations and intel. The whole national security part of being a senator is a really cool thing."The intrigue: The governor's mansion also has a strong draw for ambitious House members these days.Six House members have launched 2025 and 2026 campaigns for governor, compared to four who are officially running for Senate. That balance could shift as races shake out and people move from "considering" to "running."As many as four House Republicans could take a shot at the Senate race in Georgia now that Kemp is out of the running.What to watch: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) has yet to make a decision on whether he will try to oust Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) from his seat next year.Cooper would be the Democrats' best bet at flipping the seat.Stephen Neukam contributed reporting.

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The governor-to-Senate pipeline is suddenly flowing in the other direction

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