The national redistricting wars are entering a new, more existential phase

Data: Axios research; Map: Erin Davis/Axios VisualsThe national fight over redistricting is ramping up in this week, with several states taking new steps to redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 elections.Why it matters: These changes could have reverberations for years as Democrats and Republicans scramble to nullify each other's gains.Some states, for instance, are taking steps to bypass their independent redistricting commissions in order to embark on mid-decade redistricting.What could lie ahead is a never-ending, zero-sum arms race to squeeze every last drop of partisan advantage out of every congressional map."Left to their own devices, the partisans in these different states have sort of already told us where they're going with this," Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told Axios. Driving the news: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) was in Illinois on Monday to encourage Democratic lawmakers in the state to try to squeeze one more blue seat out of their already heavily gerrymandered map.At the same time, Indiana state lawmakers convened a special session to consider drawing out one or both of the remaining House Democrats in their state.Virginia Democrats are pitching a victory in next Tuesday's state legislative and gubernatorial elections as an opportunity to draw out two or three of their state's House Republicans.Zoom out: This all began over the summer, when Republicans in the Texas state legislature, egged on by President Trump, redrew their maps to draw out five more Democrats.It was a brutal move that prompted an in-kind response from Democrats in California, who are trying to pass a ballot initiative temporarily curtailing the independent commission mandated by their state constitution.Many more states could follow, with Jeffries and Trump both trying to get reluctant state legislators on side in their respective redistricting pushes.Yes, but: In some states, the two party leaders are encountering recalcitrance that could prove fatal to their efforts.Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray (R) has insisted that his chamber doesn't have the necessary votes to pass new maps.Illinois Senate Black Caucus chair Willie Preston (D) has spoken out against diluting the Black vote share in several Chicago districts in order to shore up Democrats elsewhere in the state.What they're saying: Huffman, whose district would be substantially changed in redistricting to include more rural, conservative areas, said holdouts like Preston need to "see the bigger picture.""This is so much bigger than any one district and any one person. That is why I was not going to object when they dramatically reworked my district ... to hopefully give us a fighting chance to save democracy," he said.Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), who represents one of the districts Preston is concerned about, told Axios he is "supportive of exploring every opportunity to gain additional Democratic seats."The intrigue: Huffman projected optimism that, somewhat counterintuitively, this arms race could actually lead to a golden new opportunity for national redistricting reform."People of all different politics hate gerrymandering, and we are seeing it in its ugliest, purest form right now. It could be that we just had to bottom out ... to show the American people what a mess it is," he said."I do believe that [national redistricting reform] could happen. Maybe even with Republicans. If this comes back to bite them in the ass ... they may suddenly be singing a different tune."

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