The problem with Trump's tariff promises: not enough money

If you add up all of President Trump's plans for the tens of billions in tariff revenue the U.S. is collecting, the bucket of money has already dried up — and then some.Why it matters: For the first time in decades, America is bringing in meaningful tariff revenue that could improve the nation's fiscal outlook, a bright spot from the administration's trade policy.But Trump has promised debt reduction, deficit reduction, $2,000 dividend checks and farm bailouts with the money, among other things. All of it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions, more in total than is on track to be collected. The big picture: Trump is relying on the money as a source of relief amid an affordability crisis that pinched Republicans in elections earlier this month. Failure to follow through could result in political blowback in next year's midterm elections. Stunning stat: Consider the public's roaring interest in the promised checks. In the past month, "stimulus" is the fourth-most queried term across government-related topics, according to Google Trends.Few business-related search queries are rising faster this month than those related to the tariff stimulus checks — like "stimulus payment November 2025," and "2,000 tariff dividend."The intrigue: "This is the first time, at least in the post-war era, that tariffs are primarily being used as a source of revenue," Ken Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, tells Axios.The fresh funds have created a dynamic unique to the Trump 2.0 era. Trump has promised revenues from tariffs unilaterally imposed by the White House to different initiatives — even though White House officials concede that Congress must authorize how the money gets spent.Even that is no guarantee: Many Republican senators say they prefer the tariff money is used to pay down the debt, which Trump had earlier promised to use the money to do.The latest: Trump said in a Truth Social post this month said "a dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone."The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that all tariffs have brought in approximately $225 billion in revenue in 2025, with roughly $140 billion of that from Trump's emergency tariff orders.The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimates the checks will cost $600 billion, twice as much as the Trump's tariffs are estimated to raise on an annual basis.The group's estimate assumes parameters similar to the COVID-era stimulus checks. That means adults and children earning less than $75,000 (or less than $150,000 for joint filers) are eligible for at least some payment.Yes, but: Trump also promised to dole out tariff revenue to aid farmers impacted by the U.S.-China trade war, reportedly as much as $12 billion to start.Trump has also promised to tap tariff funds for deficit reduction, suddenly complicated by the Congressional Budget Office slashing $1 trillion from their tariff deficit forecast. For the record: "Given we have not yet revealed any specifics here, back-of-the-envelope analyses about the rebate checks are baseless speculation," a White House official says in a statement to Axios.The official added that the administration is "committed to putting this money to good use for the American people."What to watch: Trump is relying on tariff revenue that is at risk of shrinking in the months ahead, in no small part because the White House is rolling back tariffs to address affordability concerns, or as a result of trade deals that lower baseline levies.The Supreme Court is weighing whether many of Trump's tariffs are legal. If the high court strikes down the tariffs, the administration could be required to issue refunds to U.S. importers.

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