The trade war isn't over. It's just beginning

As of Thursday, sweeping new global tariffs are in place. Sort of. Probably. With exceptions?The big picture: Anyone who thought President Trump's firm deadline to impose tariffs was the final word on the trade war is about to learn a very hard lesson.Unlike in decades past, trade negotiations are not a process that has a start and a finish, the goal being an agreement that will stand the test of time.Rather, they are an ongoing process, in which the U.S. can implement tariffs on any country, at any time, for any reason — regardless of any preexisting treaties or handshake deals.Consider the news over just the last couple of days, well after the Aug. 1 trade deadline passed:Trump, after saying for months that a trade deal with India was imminent, imposed a 25% levy on the longstanding ally, then doubled it less than a week later. The stated reason was purchases of Russian oil, though he didn't do the same thing to China, an equally heavy buyer.Trump announced a 100% tariff on semiconductors, before a long-anticipated investigation of the matter had been released. But in the next breath, he promised carve-outs for companies building in the U.S — creating a loophole for most of the world's biggest chipmakers.Japanese media reported that their government's understanding of tariff calculations appears to be very different than the Trump administration's understanding, particularly comparing their deal to the one struck with the EU.The German finance minister reportedly blasted that EU deal and set off for Washington to try to renegotiate parts of it, before any of it was even finalized. The Swiss president also went to Washington to deal with her own surprisingly heavy tariffs, and left empty-handed.New data out of China suggests its exports surged in July — not to the U.S., but to countries that are popular intermediate destinations for shipping goods to the U.S. and avoiding the heaviest tariffs. Trump's new tariff regime includes a 40% levy on such "transshipments," but the administration has put off explaining how that'll work.Reality check: The Conference Board and Business Council's quarterly survey of CEO sentiment improved sharply in July, as "tariffs and trade" dropped sharply on the list of their concerns."The improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes between the U.S. and China became less intense and potentially reflects ongoing progress on trade negotiations," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at the Conference Board.The stock market is mostly brushing it all off, pushing toward new all-time highs on apparent relief over the exemptions in the chip tariffs.As LPL Financial's head of macro strategy Kristian Kerr noted this week, volatility across asset classes — stocks, bonds, currencies — has plunged to multiyear lows.What to watch: There are plenty more tariffs to possibly come in the next few weeks.In addition to the semiconductor investigation, similar reports are expected soon on lumber and pharmaceuticals, with heavy tariffs possible as a result.Sanctions are looming on Russia, with a deadline in the coming days that could lead to higher tariffs for multiple countries.The trade truce with China is due to end Aug. 12, and while the Chinese have said it will be extended, Trump hasn't acted yet.As Evercore ISI noted in a report this week, a dozen decisions are expected in the next couple of months on targeted anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs on products ranging from the industrial (fiberglass door panels, steel rebar) to the consumer (paprika, decorative plywood).The bottom line: We're only approaching the end of the beginning.

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