Why Dems are suddenly confident about 2026

Democrats have a rare bright spot in their party's existential crisis: 2026, at least to them, looks pretty good.Why it matters: The party is full of angst over how to retake the White House and win back the voters they lost to President Trump over the past decade. But they feel increasingly sanguine about taking back the House next year.Here's the five-part theory of the case for why Dems are optimistic about 2026, as laid out by more than a dozen of their top campaign staffers.The "big, beautiful bill" is polling terribly.Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are expected to make the "big, beautiful bill" even more unpopular.Prices are still high despite Trump promising to bring them down. Economic approval had long been one of Trump's consistent political strengths and now is not.Trump's deportations are getting blowback after going well beyond violent criminals and gang members. Polls show Republicans losing their advantage on one of their key issues in the 2024 election.Democratic enthusiasm. A recent CNN poll found that 72% Democrats and Democratic-aligned voters are extremely motivated to vote in the midterm elections compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-aligned voters.Between the lines: Some Democrats are worried that victories in 2026 will stop the party from reckoning with its deeper issues and unpopularity.The party needs to change and victories will give party leaders excuses not to, they argue.Zoom in: In 2026, Democrats only need to win a handful of seats to take back the House majority. They also just successfully recruited former Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate in North Carolina, as Axios first reported. Democrats believe they're getting the right kinds of candidates in the House: people with little connection to D.C. who can run against both parties.Midterms often favor the party out of power and Democrats have increasingly done better with college-educated voters who also tend to vote more often in non-presidential elections.Zoom out: The Democratic Party is facing headwinds of historic unpopularity that will make it harder to win back the House.The Wall Street Journal recently found that only 33% of voters have a favorable view of Democrats and 63% have an unfavorable view — the highest percentage in the Journal's polling back to 1990. Other polls also look bad.Many of the cuts to Medicaid do not go into effect until 2027, so voters may not feel their effects by the midterms.Republicans in Ohio and Texas also might draw new congressional maps to help them win a few extra seats.

Comments

World news

WestJet must pay $2K for cancelled flights after B.C. tribunal rejects airline's 'highly technical' evidence

National Post

Trump cuts more than half of all federal funding for gun violence prevention – including in cities like New York and Washington

about 3 hours ago

Zoo kills 12 baboons despite protests from animal rights groups

Independent

Comments

World news

WestJet must pay $2K for cancelled flights after B.C. tribunal rejects airline's 'highly technical' evidence

Trump says Epstein ‘stole’ underage victim Virginia Giuffre from his Mar-a-Lago spa leading to feud

Trump won’t rule out pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell. Can anyone trust her?

Joe Rogan accuses Trump of ‘gaslighting’ over the Epstein files as schism with president grows

UK will recognise Palestinian state in September unless Israel ends ‘appalling situation’ in Gaza

What is CTE? Condition claimed by Manhattan NFL skyscraper shooter that 1/3 of former players fear they have

Nantucket officials accuse offshore wind developer of going into hiding since Trump's election

Diddy proposes conditions for release before sentencing: ‘He will not squander his second chance at life’

Raiders star Christian Wilkins cut from NFL team after meeting room kissing incident

Starmer is finally recognising Palestine – but it isn’t enough

What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?

Ghislaine Maxwell seeks immunity in exchange for congressional testimony

Trump says India will likely face a 20% to 25% tariff

Nanaimo council defers motion on closing injection site

NYC shooting gunman left behind note appearing to blame NFL for brain injury

Manitoba suspect faces half-dozen charges after armed, chaotic ambulance scene

Regular walking can reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s for many, study shows

A month into new transit system, Winnipeg councillor says city wants rider feedback

B.C. needs to add 16,000 long-term care beds in the next decade, says seniors advocate

US Grammy winner Ciara becomes citizen of Benin under new slavery descendants law

Afghans caught in mass deportations in Iran face an uncertain future at home

The U.K. will recognize a Palestinian state if Israel doesn't agree to a Gaza ceasefire

U.S. and China Fail to Reach Immediate Deal to Prolong Trade Truce

Trump Urges the U.K. to Drill More Oil, Criticizing Its Energy Policy

Houthis in Yemen Confirm in Video They Are Holding 11 Mariners Hostage

UNICEF Employees Held Hostage For 3 Weeks in Haiti

UK Will Recognize Palestinian Statehood In September, Unless Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire is Reached

Air Canada strike risk: Everything we know as flight attendants vote

How Canada-U.S. trade talks could shape the potential recession risk

N.S. Mi’kmaq chiefs call on Ottawa to address income assistance disparity on reserves

UK will recognise Palestinian state in September unless Israel ends ‘appalling situation’ in Gaza, Starmer vows

Ghislaine Maxwell has offered to testify to Congress about Epstein case but with major conditions: report

This European country now offers both mothers and fathers 17 weeks parental leave

Putin’s right-hand man tells Lindsey Graham to ‘Work on America’ in response to peace talk demands

What would UK recognition of Palestine as a state actually mean?

Prisoner beat cellmate to death after imagining she used her toothbrush to clean the toilet

Fox News expert suggests that ‘bystander apathy’ is to blame for Manhattan shooting

Marjorie Taylor Greene calls Gaza a ‘genocide’ after Trump counters Netanyahu and admits kids are starving

Father of cop slain in NYC shooting had stroke when he was told, according to report

Turkey develops ‘most powerful’ 970kg thermobaric bomb

Renaming Kennedy Center for Trumps would violate law that created it, insiders say as JFK niece weighs in

Military jet performs evasive manoeuvre to avoid flock of birds in its path at Spanish festival

Stalker who believed he was in a long-term relationship with Caitlin Clark learns if he’s going to prison

Google engineer killed by falling tree branch while hiking in Yosemite National Park: ‘Just unimaginable’

Fox News hosts suggests children can fill farm labor shortages caused by Trump deportations

Trump cuts more than half of all federal funding for gun violence prevention – including in cities like New York and Washington

Zoo kills 12 baboons despite protests from animal rights groups

The Generation Iranian Hard-Liners Have Been Waiting for

Newcastle’s owners have given Eddie Howe too much power

How Prevent failed Southport – and the lessons that still need to be learned

The Lionesses’ unsung heroes who powered their Euros triumph

Trump is returning to an angry America fixated on Epstein

'It's a disaster from heaven': Residents powerless after Beijing struck by devastating night of rain

Children 'eating out of piles of garbage' as Gaza aid trickles in

Police clash with anti-government protesters in Serbia over student expulsion

U.K. to recognize Palestine in September if Israel doesn't change course

The better-than-feared global economy

B.C. Interior facing temperatures up to 38 C

OPP warranted in shooting man setting multiple homes ablaze in Gravenhurst: SIU

Republican wants to rename Kennedy Center after Donald and Melania Trump