Why A Welsh Parliament By-Election Could Signal A Seismic Shift In UK Politics

The Reform campaign office on Cardiff Road in Caerphilly.As voters go to the polls in Caerphilly today, they will not just be electing the seat’s new member of the Welsh Parliament.The result, when it is announced in the early hours of Friday morning, will also give a clear indication of where British politics as a whole could be heading next May.The south Wales seat has been a Labour stronghold at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay for decades, with tellers advised to weigh rather than count the party’s votes.At the last Senedd election in 2021, Labour’s Hefin David won with a majority of 5,078 over Plaid Cymru’s Delyth Jewell. The Reform UK candidate, Tim Price, came seventh with just 495 votes.This time around, however, the result will be very different.The by-election is being held following Hefin David’s death in August and opinion polls suggest the seat is a straight shootout between Reform’s Llyr Powell and Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle. Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe is expected to trail in a distant third.The significance of that result cannot be overstated. No party other than Labour has ever held the seat since the start of Welsh devolution in 1999.At Westminster, the seat has been in Labour’s hands since 1918 (apart from between 1981 and 1983, when the Labour MP Ednyfed Hudson Davies defected to the SDP).A collapse in Labour’s support in such a traditional stronghold will simply add to the growing belief among party bosses that they are heading for catastrophe next May.As well as the election for the Senedd, the Scottish Parliament and council seats across England will also be up for grabs in what will inevitably be viewed as a referendum on Labour’s first two years in office.With the party continuing to trail well behind Reform in the opinion polls, and Keir Starmer’s own popularity in the gutter, Labour people are approaching those elections like a condemned man walking towards the electric chair.The loss of Wales for the first time in the devolution era, the failure to regain Holyrood from the SNP and the loss of hundreds more councillors in England will pile yet more pressure on the prime minister, and may even precipitate his downfall.The Caerphilly by-election result will be closely analysed far beyond south Wales, not least in 10 Downing Street. A triumph for either Reform or Plaid Cymru will confirm that the tectonic plates of UK politics are shifting, and that an earthquake is coming in six months’ time.Related...'Rats In A Sack': Reform UK 'In Meltdown' After Axing Four Councillors On Flagship Local AuthorityTory Mayor Predicts Reform Would Win A Majority If An Election Were Held TodayNigel Farage Accuses Keir Starmer Of Inciting Violence Against Reform Supporters

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