Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store | Will Hayward

Predictions of a Reform win were wide of the mark. But Labour’s crushing byelection defeat offers important lessons tooSeveral historic things have just happened at once in Wales. Plaid Cymru won in the Caerphilly byelection for our Senedd, with almost 50% of the vote. Reform lost. Labour collapsed. Each of those things means something significant for Wales, but it also carries valuable lessons for the rest of Britain. The message for Labour ought to be clear: standing up to the far-right can win elections.Labour has been the largest party in Wales for over 100 years, leading the Welsh government since the start of devolution in 1999. It won the Caerphilly seat in 2021 with 46% of the vote. Four years later, it has ended up with just 11%. The drop is startling, but to make matters worse, under the new Senedd election system that will be introduced in May 2026, 11% is roughly the level where parties can be totally wiped out.Will Hayward is a Guardian columnist. He publishes a regular newsletter on Welsh politics and is the author of Independent Nation: Should Wales Leave the UK? Continue reading...

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