Nvidia is caught in Trump's China trade war, and it could impact the stock market

Nvidia, the biggest company in the world by market cap, reported world-beating results Wednesday evening. But export controls to China dampened its data center revenue, and that's making investors nervous.Why it matters: Nvidia is caught in the middle of a Trump trade war that could impact its earnings growth and the trajectory of the entire stock market.What they're saying: "We need [China] more than they need us," Paul Meeks, managing director and head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, tells Axios. CEO Jensen Huang sees the Chinese market as a $50 billion opportunity that could grow 50% per year.That's why investors want the doors to that market wide open.Catch up quick: The Trump administration barred exports of Nvidia's H20 chips to China in April.The ban was reversed in July after the Nvidia CEO visited the White House and agreed to give a 15% cut of revenue from China chip sales to the U.S. government.Nvidia still can't sell its most powerful chips to China, though it is urging the U.S. government for approval.By the numbers: Export controls pressured its data center revenue, which came in just below Wall Street estimates, at $41.1 billion.Part of that was due to a $4 billion reduction in H20 chip sales.State of play: Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said the company would ship between $2 billion and $5 billion worth of H20 chips in the current quarter.The company gets half of its data center revenue from large cloud service providers, which happen to be the other biggest companies in the S&P 500.All of those companies have already committed to record AI spending, which could translate to upside for Nvidia.Zoom out: Nvidia makes up 8% of the benchmark S&P 500.If export controls impact Nvidia, the effects could reverberate through the entire stock market.

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