People Born From 1980 Onwards 'Will Not Live To Be 100', Longevity Study Suggests

Birthday cake with candlesThough millionaires like Bryan Johnson are doing their utmost to stay alive for as long as possible (including injecting his teen son’s plasma into his body), for most of us, longevity advice is a little simpler. We’re told to eat as well as we can, try to move enough, and get adequate sleep. Modern medicine and science can help with the rest.But despite what a 2009 paper suggested, not all experts agree that “most babies born since 2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and other countries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100th birthdays”.In fact, not only have UK life expectancies dipped since the pandemic, but a recent paper has led José Andrade from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany to say: “We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone.” Their cohorts included all generations born after 1939.Have life expectancy gains maxxed out?A 2024 study published in Nature previously suggested that we might have already hit the upper limit of possible lifespans.This paper, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, also said that the rate of improvement in longevity has slowed down a lot.From 1900-1938, the research found, life expectancy increased by about five and a half months with each new generation. If you were born in 1900, you’d be expected to reach 62; 1938 babies, meanwhile, had a life expectancy of 80. But from 1939-2000, that rate of improvement slowed drastically – to about two and a half to three and a half months per generation, depending on how it’s measured. “The unprecedented increase in life expectancy we achieved in the first half of the 20th century appears to be a phenomenon we are unlikely to achieve again in the foreseeable future,” study author Héctor Pifarré i Arolas shared. Why are life expectancy gains slowing down?If you have (or are) a history buff friend, you’ve probably heard people explain that most adults in the past didn’t die at 40 if they reached adulthood – the low life expectancy of people hundreds of years ago is skewed by child mortality rates.The study authors found that over half of the average life expectancy slowdown is thanks to continued mortality trends seen among under-fives, while three-quarters of the deceleration is thanks to death rates in the under-20s. In other words, now that we’re better at preventing death in young people, the variant that most transformed the life expectancy stats for all of us in the past has been quite comprehensively addressed by new medicine and healthcare.So, unless we find an answer to the much harder question of adding years to the lives of older adults, the existing gains will probably stay roughly where they are. “This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by remarkable improvements in survival at very young ages,” Andrade stated.Pifarré i Arolas added, “In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly extend human life, life expectancy would still not match the rapid increases seen in the early 20th century, even if adult survival improved twice as fast as we predict.”Related...Is The 'Japanese' Or 'Mediterranean' Diet Healthier? I Asked A Longevity DoctorHRV Is Linked To ‘Exceptional Longevity’: Here’s What It Can (And Can’t) Tell You About Your HealthYour Postcode Is Ageing You: New Report Exposes North-South Longevity Gap

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