Turkey's Inflation in 2026: TÜİK vs ENAG — and What to Expect on 3 November

Turkey's annual inflation fell to 29.73% in September 2026, the first reading below 30% in 57 months, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). The independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) put the same figure at 46.61%. The next official number, for October, is due on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 10:00 Turkish time; economists surveyed by the central bank expect prices to rise about 2.11% in the month. This page collects both series month by month, explains why they differ, and sets out the dates, interest rates and exchange rates behind them, as of 19 October 2026.

When is Turkey's October inflation data released?

TÜİK's September bulletin names 3 November 2026 as the date of the next consumer price index (TÜFE) release, and every 2026 CPI bulletin so far has been published at 10:00. TÜİK publishes on the 3rd of each month unless it falls on a weekend: the September data came out on Monday 5 October because 3 October was a Saturday. Domestic producer prices (Yİ-ÜFE) come out at the same time. ENAG publishes on the same morning, before TÜİK; its September figures were online by 09:15 on 5 October. The November figures are expected on 3 December, and December's in early January 2027 — 3 January is a Sunday, and in 2026 the December 2025 data came out on Monday 5 January.

What were the latest inflation figures?

In September 2026 consumer prices rose 1.84% in the month and 29.73% over twelve months, TÜİK said on 5 October. Prices were up 24.32% since December 2025, and the 12-month average, which sets the legal ceiling for rent increases, stood at 31.49%. Housing costs were up 39.99% year on year and transport 35.10%, while food was 27.62% higher and fell 0.20% in the month. Core indicators B and C were 29.00% and 28.70%. Producer prices (Yİ-ÜFE) rose 2.07% in the month and 27.38% over the year. ENAG reported 2.10% for the month and 46.61% for the year.

TÜİK and ENAG month by month in 2026

Monthly change / annual rate, TÜİK first, then ENAG. December 2025: TÜİK 0.89% / 30.89%, ENAG 2.11% / 56.14%. January 2026: 4.84% / 30.65%, ENAG 6.32% / 53.42%. February: 2.96% / 31.53%, ENAG 4.01% / 54.14%. March: 1.94% / 30.87%, ENAG 4.10% / 54.62%. April: 4.18% / 32.37%, ENAG 5.07% / 55.38%. May: 1.71% / 32.61%, ENAG 2.16% / 53.13%. June: 0.99% / 32.11%, ENAG 1.94% / 51.49%. July: 1.78% / 31.75%, ENAG 3.07% / 50.49%. August: 1.84% / 31.51%, ENAG 2.24% / 49.03%. September: 1.84% / 29.73%, ENAG 2.10% / 46.61%. October: TÜİK and ENAG publish on 3 November.

TÜİK figures are from its monthly bulletins; ENAG figures as reported by Diken, Milli Gazete, Euronews and Dünya on the day of each release. Since January 2026 TÜİK's index uses a new base year (2025=100 instead of 2003=100) and the COICOP 2018 classification with 174 sub-classes, so comparisons with older series need care.

Why do TÜİK and ENAG figures differ so much?

ENAG is a group of academics led by Prof. Veysel Ulusoy of Yeditepe University that began publishing its own index in 2020 because it doubted the official numbers. It says it collects about 250,000 prices a day, online and in shops, and also publishes daily indices. The gap between the two annual rates was 16.9 percentage points in September 2026, down from 25.3 points in December 2025, by Cupure's calculation from the published figures. Both series show inflation slowing through 2026.

The dispute has been to court. In 2021 TÜİK filed a criminal complaint against Ulusoy, and then-finance minister Lütfi Elvan said ENAG aimed to discredit the institute; a court rejected TÜİK's request to stop ENAG publishing, and on 3 November 2022 an Ankara civil court dismissed TÜİK's case. At the peak in October 2022 the official rate was 85.51% and ENAG's 185.34%. The central bank's targets and forecasts refer to TÜİK's index, which is also the legal basis for pension, wage and rent adjustments; ENAG's index has no legal role.

What is expected for October and the rest of 2026?

These are expectations, not results. In the central bank's Market Participants Survey published on 16 October 2026, 71 respondents expected October prices to rise 2.11% in the month and annual inflation to end 2026 at 29.63%, and 23.89% twelve months ahead. October 2025 was a high month (2.55%), so any October 2026 reading below that would lower the annual rate; at 2.11% it would fall to about 29.2%, by Cupure's calculation. In September the AA Finans poll average was 2.18% and the actual reading came in lower, at 1.84%.

Official forecasts have been raised during the year. The central bank's year-end forecast was a 15–21% range in February, 26% in May and 28% in August, while its interim target was lifted from 16% to 24% in May; the target for 2027 is 15%. The government's Medium-Term Programme of 6 September expects 28.4% for 2026. The central bank's next Inflation Report is due on 12 November.

What has the central bank done with interest rates?

The central bank (TCMB) cut its one-week repo rate from 38% to 37% on 22 January 2026 and held it at 37% at its meetings on 12 March, 22 April, 11 June, 23 July and 10 September; the overnight lending rate is 40%. After the war involving Iran began at the end of February, the bank suspended one-week repo auctions from 1 March, so banks were funded at the 40% overnight rate until auctions resumed in late August. The remaining 2026 decisions are due on 22 October and 10 December; survey respondents expected a cut to 36%.

How has the lira moved?

On 2 January 2026 the dollar opened at 43.02 lira and the euro at about 50.6. By Friday 16 October it closed at about 49.4 lira and the euro at about 55.5, Dünya reported, and on 19 October the dollar opened at 49.55 and the euro at 55.63. That is a rise of about 15% for the dollar and about 10% for the euro since January, while TÜİK's consumer prices rose 24.3% from January to September — so measured in euros or dollars, Turkey has become more expensive. Survey respondents expect the dollar at 51.55 lira at the end of 2026. Unemployment was 7.8% in August, but the broader underutilisation rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, was 31.0%; the next labour data is due on 27 October.

What does this mean for German-Turks and tourists from Germany?

Because the euro has risen less against the lira than Turkish prices have, a weak lira no longer makes Turkey as cheap as it was. Comparisons by Germany's statistics office Destatis cited by Nordbayern in March 2026 found a holiday in Turkey was 56% cheaper than in Germany in 2023 but only 31% cheaper in 2025, and tour operators increasingly agree local prices in euros. Hürriyet's German edition reported in July 2026 that of 73.6 million overnight stays in domestic travel in the first quarter, 59.2 million were with friends or relatives and 5.65 million in hotels, while travel spending rose 33.9%. For people sending euros to family in Turkey, those euros buy about 10% more lira than in January, but the lira buys about 24% less.

What happens next?

22 October 2026: central bank rate decision. 27 October: TÜİK labour force data for September. 3 November, 10:00: October inflation from TÜİK, and ENAG's figure the same morning; the result also sets the rent cap for November renewals and is the fourth of six months behind the January 2027 pension increase. 12 November: Inflation Report IV. 3 December: November inflation. 10 December: last rate decision of 2026. Early January 2027: December inflation and the year-end figure. This page will be updated after each release.