Why Angela Rayner's Political Survival Now Rests In The Hands Of 1 Man

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner' political future is at stake.All eyes are on resignation watch for Angela Rayner this week as the deputy prime minister faces intense scrutiny over her tax affairs.After admitting to underpaying on stamp duty by tens of thousands of pounds, Rayner’s fate now lies with the independent ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, who effectively tells Keir Starmer just how much trouble she is in.The prime minister will then decide how extensive a punishment his second-in-command should receive – and whether she can stay on in his top team.Here’s what you need to know.Recap: How did we get here?The deputy prime minister bought a second property in Hove in May 2025 – a fact which drew attention because that would be her third residence, if you include her grace-and-favour home in Westminster.Reporters then uncovered that she may not have paid the full stamp duty on that £800,000 seaside flat.It was claimed that she had taken her name off the deed of her constituency home in Greater Manchester shortly before the purchase, meaning that house was no longer her primary residence.The deputy prime minister was then able to pay less stamp duty on the Hove flat because it was not listed as her second home.Amid rising backlash, Rayner then unexpectedly revealed that she had indeed underpaid on tax by £40,000 on Wednesday.She said it was by mistake, and that she was acting on legal advice she received at the time.She also referred herself to the independent ethics adviser (Magnus) and to tax revenue, so she is liable to pay what is owed. Why is this particularly complicated?The deputy PM said she set up a “nesting arrangement” with her ex-husband after their divorce whereby their children would stay in the family home permanently, and their parents would alternate living there.She said the interest in their family home was transferred to her disabled son’s court-instructed trust – of which he is the sole beneficiary – after the divorce.Rayner sold her remaining share of the house to her son’s trust in January 2025, to allow him to enjoy the security of “knowing the home is his”.She said she used her lump sum from that sale to make her purchase in May.But after rising interest in her properties, Rayner said she sought more legal advice and found she was liable for the higher rate of tax after all as her son’s trust did not reduce the initial stamp duty rate of £70,000.Rayner is also the housing secretary, and has been preparing to hike council tax on those with second properties.Her rivals are therefore calling for her imminent resignation – and the deputy PM has confessed she has spoken to her family about stepping down.But prime minister Keir Starmer has insisted he still has confidence in her, though whether that faith in his deputy will remain once the probe concludes remains to be seen.Who is Sir Laurie Magnus?Sir Laurie has been the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministerial standards since December 2022 and before that worked a a financier in the City of London.He will examine whether Rayner followed the original legal advice she received on her house purchase, as she claims.If he finds that her story does not stack up, then her position in the Cabinet will likely be untenable.Do we know how long the investigation will take?All of Westminster will be on the edge of their seats waiting for this investigation to conclude.There’s plenty resting on it, not least Starmer’s attempt to turn over a new leaf after a troubled first year of government.The ministerial reshuffle which has been expected for months has also allegedly been delayed until after the probe is complete.But it could be quite quick. Some outlets – like the Guardian and POLITICO – have heard that the probe could be completed within a few days, while The Telegraph speculated that she could be interviewed before the weekend and Times Radio suggests it could be completed by the end of Thursday.Magnus previously took only six days to conclude then Tory party chairman Nadhim Zahami had breached the ministerial code in 2023 over his tax affairs, and had “fallen below the high standards” expected of those in government.Magnus also took eight days to investigation anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq over her link to an anti-corruption probe in Bangladesh.He did not find any “evidence of improprieties” but did say she should have been conscious of the reputational risks – and she was soon ushered out of government.Might Rayner soon be following suit?Related...Angela Rayner Has Admitted She Didn't Pay Enough Tax. Here's Why This Is Such A Big DealWhy Are Some People Suddenly So Concerned About Angela Rayner's 'Primary Residence'?'She's Done Nothing Wrong': LBC Presenter Roasts Richard Holden Over Angela Rayner Row

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